What about the minister who had the guts to resign over Iraq? After a weekend which has seen repeated media calls for Brown to face a proper challenge for the leadership his price has eased further on the betting markets. Just a week ago a £100 winning Brown bet would have produced a profit of £19 – today such a wager offers £27. But the big question that those betting against the Chancellor have to ask is – if not…
Political Betting Book Launch Party Monday 16th April – 4pm to 6pm The Strangers Restaurant, House of Commons And afterwards in St Stephens Tavern, Westminster In partnership with Politico’s Book Shop, Politicalbetting.com is happy to announce the date and venue, as above, of its annual party which this year will be combined with the launch of Mike’s book, The Political Punter, which is being published by Harriman House. The venue is made possible by the sponsorship of our MP contributors,…
Blair planning to quit as an MP as soon as he steps down – report According to what is billed as an “exclusive” by the News of the World this morning Tony Blair is planning to step down as MP immediately after leaving Downing Street this summer. The paper says “He has told members of his local Labour Party in the north-east he does not want to “get in the way on the back benches..He had privately agreed to stay…
Will the climate change sceptic win the Peers’ Tory by election? There’s a by election going on at the moment for a place in parliament which has hardly been covered in the media but which, potentially, could cause a problem for David Cameron. There are 43 candidates fighting it out to win the support from an electorate of just 47 different people and the result is due the week after next. At stake is one of the hereditary Tory places…
Can Labour Retain the North Kent Marginals? One of the funniest sights at the last election was watching Bob Marshall-Andrews conceding defeat in Medway, only to find out later that he’d retained the seat by 223 votes. This set the pattern in North Kent, as Labour managed to cling on to the marginal seats of Chatham & Aylesford, Sittingbourne & Sheppey, Gillingham, Dartford, and, of course, Medway. In four of these seats, the Labour majority was less than a thousand….
The internet pollster reinforces the trend picked up by ICM Today’s YouGov poll in the Daily Telegraph shows almost no change in the overall voting intentions on the last survey by the internet pollster – but provides more evidence following this week’s ICM poll of growing doubts on the electoral appeal of the Chancellor, Gordon Brown. The headline figures are with changes on the last YouGov survey two and a half weeks ago are:- CON 37% (nc): LAB 32% (nc):…
Is the US pollster right on the language that both men are adopting? This, I know, is getting into dangerous territory because two words that lead to the biggest explosions on PBC are “Frank” and “Luntz” – ever since the US pollster’s famous “focus group” screened on Newsnight during the Conservative Party conference in October 2005. In this week’s edition of the Spectator, out this morning, Luntz is the author of the cover feature on how both men use language…
Is Hoggart right about the exit? A throwaway line at the end of this morning’s Commons sketch by Simon Hoggart in the Guardian has got me thinking about Tony Blair and when he will step down. For when asked at PMQs yesterday what he hoped to be remembered for Hoggart notes the “extraordinary” fact that Blair ..”didn’t have anything prepared… he hasn’t worked out what his own legacy is..I’ll believe he’s going when he goes.” Usually a good litmus test…