Will his own union not give his leadership bid its blessing? If Gordon did not look such a certainty for the Labour leadership then this latest news about unions backing could have been an enormous blow. For as the Mirror writer, Kevin Maguire, notes in a blog piece on the Mirror web-site there a real chance that the new super union made up of Amicus and the T&G might not give Brown its endorsement. This union, when the merger goes…
The “Third Man”, François Bayrou, continues to move forward in the polls As the latest betting prices in the French Presidential election show the big movement since the end of February has been to the so called “Third Man” in the race, the centrist candidate, François Bayrou. This follows a spate of recent polls that show he is now within striking distance of the two front-runners, the Right’s Nicolas Sarkozy and the Socialist party’s Ségolène Royal. This could be critical…
Is it too much to ask journalists to check the data? Reports of an interview with the Deputy Leadership candidate, Harriet Harman, were published on the BBC web-site this morning in which she quoted from a privately commissioned YouGov poll that was carried out in November. The findings, according to the article, “…show that the Harman/Brown dream ticket is the one with most appeal to “swing voters,” the poll suggests, with 15% of those surveyed saying Ms Harman would make…
What a finale for the final days of Tony Blair? On the day after the historic decision by the Commons to back a 100% elected House of Lords there’s news this morning that the Welsh and Scottish elections as well as the English local council elections on May 3rd could be scrutinised for vote tampering and fraud by a European Human Rights watchdog. If this happens the UK would be the first western democracy to have its electoral processes scrutinised…
Why equidistance between the main parties should be Ming’s only policy Recriminations are continuing within the Lib Dems over the cock-up in Harrogate at the weekend that caused almost all of the media to report that Ming would do a deal with Gord but not Dave. Whether or not the leader was saying he favoured Labour really does not matter. What is key is how it was reported and the ammunition it will provide for both the Tories and Labour…
Finally Lost One! It’s taken six weeks but we finally suffered our first defeat in the weekly contest with Anthony Wells of YouGov and his Politicians’ Popularity Index. In fact it should be ‘I suffered’ because for reasons we won’t go into, I did all the selections last week. Benn’s improvement was a surprise. Maybe there’s an instructive cross-reference to his performance in the Deputy Leader race. If he’s still available at 3/1 for that, I’d be tempted. Hague was…
Report – “Did Levy try to get Blair aide to modify evidence?” On the day that Populus reports some disastrous polling figures for Labour and Gordon Brown (see previous thread) more information about what’s been going on in the cash for honours inquiry has been printed in the Guardian this morning. This follows the refusal of a judge to grant an injunction against the paper. According to the lead story detectives are investigating whether Lord Levy urged Ruth Turner to…
55% of voters want a “younger, newer, less experienced, rising star†The March survey by Populus for the Times follows the trend of the other recent telephone polls and shows a big increase in the Labour’s gap behind the Tories. The headline figures with comparisons on February are: CON 38%(+2): LAB 30%(-3): LD18%(-1). So last month’s 3% deficit has increased to 8% – which equals the biggest ever lead the pollster has recorded for the Conservatives. A month ago when…