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LOST IN THE WOODS: Labour’s Challenge for the 2020s

LOST IN THE WOODS: Labour’s Challenge for the 2020s

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Cards on the table – I don’t understand the Labour Party any more. I used to – a quarter century of membership, Chair, Treasurer, Secretary, Councillor. Then, like so many long-term Labour voters, I left the party. For an opposition these should be opportune times. A pandemic which has been particularly harsh in the UK thanks to a series of government bungles has not only seen far more deaths than should have been, but needless economic pain as well.  An…

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Stopping the SNP juggernaut – what are the chances for Scotland’s opposition parties?

Stopping the SNP juggernaut – what are the chances for Scotland’s opposition parties?

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Analysis of the most recent Ipsos Scotland poll With two months to go until the Holyrood elections, Ipsos MORI’s latest Scotland poll yet again finds the SNP ahead on voting intention – 52% of likely voters are minded to vote SNP for their constituency, and 47% say they will vote for them on their regional list. Both the Conservatives (on 23% constituency, 22% list) and Labour (15%/14%) continue to trail well behind. But as the well worn saying goes, a…

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Break open your cage and VOOM: New policies for the Lib Dems

Break open your cage and VOOM: New policies for the Lib Dems

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Margaret Thatcher’s only good joke – maybe her *only* joke – was likening the Liberal Democrats to Monty Python’s dead parrot. Today, the joke rings truer than ever. The Lib Dems have only 11 MPs left. Remainerism, the party’s great cause of the last five years, has joined the choir invisible. Sir Ed Davey was elected leader and nobody has noticed. It is possible he is “just resting”. But Britain needs the Ed and his party to step up, now…

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Ten seats to watch at the next general election

Ten seats to watch at the next general election

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It’s never too soon to think about the next election and how that might look in detail. Let’s have a look at some of the individual constituencies that will tell the story of the night.  Yes, there is going to be a boundary review. So how on earth can we identify barometer seats now? The problem is less daunting than it looks. The latest review is going to keep seat numbers at 650, meaning that seat reallocations will be fairly measured. We know how…

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The dangerous first step towards the end of the World Wide Web as we know it

The dangerous first step towards the end of the World Wide Web as we know it

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Richard Tyndall on the Australian government move against Facebook So one day, when this terrible virus is finally under some semblance of control, we will be able to go back to the pub. We will be able to do something that we have been unable to do for far too long – socialise face to face with our friends. Hopefully we will be able to resurrect the Political Betting pub nights and prove to each other we really are human…

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Leader and government approval ratings and voting intention as a guide to general election results

Leader and government approval ratings and voting intention as a guide to general election results

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Some posters to this site have argued that leader or government approval ratings can be a better guide to general election results than the voting intention question, if not immediately before the vote, then early in the Parliament or in mid-term.  I have been meaning for some time to put this to the test.  I have used the IPSOS-MORI opinion poll and approval ratings data, which goes back to 1977, covering 11 general elections.  Conclusions I have found: three years…

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