How much are the polls understating the far-right leader? With the immigrant background of front runner in the race for the French Presidency, Nicolas Sarkozy, being made into an issue by Jean-Marie Le Pen the polls have been reporting a steady rise in support for the Front National leader. Recent surveys have had him in the region 13% to 17% which is substantially up on where he was at this stage in the 2002 elections. Last time, it will be…
The week we would rather forget We said last week that it looked tough and how right we were. We did consider passing and now wish we had. It seems that the barrage of criticism which Gordon Brown is facing has seriously impacted his popularity score. It was down an astonishing 5.4 points to 56.4, his lowest ever and close to the dire 55.1 which Tony Blair recorded on February 22nd. Not that the Great Leader fared much better. He…
When a 1% Tory polling deficit became an 8% lead On the eve of the fifteenth anniversary of John Major’s shock general election victory in 1992 the BBC Parliament channel is devoting most of its bank holiday schedule to showing the BBC’s results programme from that night. It’s available online as well as via Freeview, satellite and cable. It starts at 9am and is repeated at 2pm and 7pm. Even though it’s a decade and a half ago Nick Sparrow,…
How a show of humility could make Brown’s succession a certainty I’ve just come across this interesting article by Michael Tomasky in the “American Prospect” describing the “air of overdog entitlement” which he believes is damaging Hillary Clinton’s campaign for the nomination. In it Tomasky praises the quality of humility that characterised her campaign to be a US senator and contrasts that with the way she, and particularly her team, are approaching the drive for the nomination. He goes on:…
As the polls get worse the pressure for a challenge grows Against a background of new polls from YouGov and ICM showing the impact of the 1997 pension row on Brown’s current standings (see previous story) there’s the above lead in the Sunday Telegraph stating that the Home Secretary is adding his weight to those urging David Miliband to challenge for the leadership when Tony steps down. For a long period, of course, Reid himself was seen as a possible…
ICM and YouGov report on the damage of the pension row Two polls by YouGov and ICM that will appear tomorrow in Rupert Murdoch’s Sunday papers, the News of the World and the Sunday Times show the damage to Gordon Brown’s reputation that the row over the 1997 pension changes has caused. Reports of what’s in the papers are just emerging but these seem to be the main highlights:- GB “Good or bad chancellor?” 52% of those surveyed by YouGov…
Does David Cameron’s appeal stop at Offa’s Dyke? Lots of excitement seems to have been generated over last night’s NOP poll on the Welsh Assembly elections – just under four weeks away. For the figures suggesting that the Tories could end in second place and become the main opposition party within the Assembly is being seen in some quarters as big news. But is this such a major development? Just looking at the numbers and comparisons with what happened four…