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Seasonal factors and the timing of general elections

Seasonal factors and the timing of general elections

Since 1979, British governments have tended to hold elections in the Spring.  According to Nigel Lawson’s memoirs, this was because Mrs Thatcher, having won in the Spring of 1979, thought that May and June were her lucky months, but subsequent Prime Ministers continued the practice.  Of the last 11 elections, only one (the most recent) was not held in April, May or June.  Subject to the five-year limit, the Prime Minister controlled the timing of the elections until the passage…

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Corbyn Supporters have cooked his goose

Corbyn Supporters have cooked his goose

He won’t be allowed back into the PLP Getting Jeremy Corbyn back into the Parliamentary Labour Party is the top aim for his supporters but, I believe the way they have conducted their campaign in Brighton last week, has made it impossible for Keir Starmer to restore the Labour Whip. Back in August, according to the Observer, the Campaign for Labour Party Democracy (CLPD) was circulating a conference resolution which would have stripped the leader of his disciplinary powers and…

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Betting opportunities in the German election

Betting opportunities in the German election

A quick guide to the parties may be helpful. As the system is modified PR, you get a greater choice of substantial parties than in Britain. The Christian Democrats (CDU) and their Bavarian (CSU) allies maintained a solid lead until quite recently, but their Chancellor candidate is seen as far less solid than Mrs Merkel, and in troubled times German voters really like serious gravitas. They’ve found it in the Social Democrat (SPD) Chancellor candidate, Scholz, who is agreeablymoderate and…

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Why I’m quitting the Conservative Party

Why I’m quitting the Conservative Party

“Levelling Up” should not be a meaningless catchphrase. If Levelling Up is to mean anything then surely it should mean that those currently without wealth can work hard, strive, take opportunities and earn money to provide for themselves and their family, and to in the words of the Prime Minister “keep more of their hard-earned money” as seen in the tweet above. Today’s tax rise on that “hard-earned money” via National Insurance is a slap in the face against the…

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Known unknowns. The General Election 2023/4

Known unknowns. The General Election 2023/4

Donald Rumsfeld, who died in June, will always be remembered for his statement about ‘known unknowns’ with reference to Iraq. The term was apparently already in use at NASA for risks that one is aware of, which is where Rumsfeld came across it.  So casting our minds to the approaching next General Election what might the ‘known unknowns’ be here in UK for the 2023/24 campaign? The NHS. Obviously a perennial election regular, but this time it could be absolutely…

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The UK vaccination programme nearly 8 months after the first jab

The UK vaccination programme nearly 8 months after the first jab

Our vaccine programme is on the whole going well, however despite falling case rates ( At least when I wrote this piece) the virus could well resurge in the autumn and winter. I do not think restricting people’s (particularly those who have done the right and community minded thing) liberty is a step that should be taken again even if cases do rise. The vaccines are very very good at preventing hospitalisations and death – which is the metric any…

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MIND THE GAP: HOW LONG WILL BORIS JOHNSON SERVE AS PRIME MINISTER?

MIND THE GAP: HOW LONG WILL BORIS JOHNSON SERVE AS PRIME MINISTER?

Source: Wikipedia – data tables can be viewed here. Serving as Prime Minister for a long time does not guarantee that history will remember you kindly. But I suspect most who reach the summit of politics are keenly aware of their place in the longevity league table. The chart above shows the length of time served as Prime Minister for each of the 77 individual stints. They can be grouped into three broad categories: 1) The also-rans: 50 stints of…

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By-election shock results

By-election shock results

Did the betting markets fail in Chesham & Amersham and Batley & Spen? Two big by-election shocks in the space of two weeks. Did the pundits and betting markets underestimate the eventual winners as the Conservatives failed to win both Chesham & Amersham and Batley & Spen? First, an explanation of what I mean by betting markets. The days of only ‘bookies’ deciding what the odds should be are long gone. The odds you’ll see on exchanges like Smarkets are the result…

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