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Known unknowns. The General Election 2023/4

Known unknowns. The General Election 2023/4

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Donald Rumsfeld, who died in June, will always be remembered for his statement about ‘known unknowns’ with reference to Iraq. The term was apparently already in use at NASA for risks that one is aware of, which is where Rumsfeld came across it.  So casting our minds to the approaching next General Election what might the ‘known unknowns’ be here in UK for the 2023/24 campaign? The NHS. Obviously a perennial election regular, but this time it could be absolutely…

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The UK vaccination programme nearly 8 months after the first jab

The UK vaccination programme nearly 8 months after the first jab

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Our vaccine programme is on the whole going well, however despite falling case rates ( At least when I wrote this piece) the virus could well resurge in the autumn and winter. I do not think restricting people’s (particularly those who have done the right and community minded thing) liberty is a step that should be taken again even if cases do rise. The vaccines are very very good at preventing hospitalisations and death – which is the metric any…

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MIND THE GAP: HOW LONG WILL BORIS JOHNSON SERVE AS PRIME MINISTER?

MIND THE GAP: HOW LONG WILL BORIS JOHNSON SERVE AS PRIME MINISTER?

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Source: Wikipedia – data tables can be viewed here. Serving as Prime Minister for a long time does not guarantee that history will remember you kindly. But I suspect most who reach the summit of politics are keenly aware of their place in the longevity league table. The chart above shows the length of time served as Prime Minister for each of the 77 individual stints. They can be grouped into three broad categories: 1) The also-rans: 50 stints of…

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By-election shock results

By-election shock results

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Did the betting markets fail in Chesham & Amersham and Batley & Spen? Two big by-election shocks in the space of two weeks. Did the pundits and betting markets underestimate the eventual winners as the Conservatives failed to win both Chesham & Amersham and Batley & Spen? First, an explanation of what I mean by betting markets. The days of only ‘bookies’ deciding what the odds should be are long gone. The odds you’ll see on exchanges like Smarkets are the result…

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Conclusions for all parties from Batley and Spen

Conclusions for all parties from Batley and Spen

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From LAB campaigner and ex-MP Nick Palmer The Conservative hope that Labour’s white working-class vote in the North is basically evaporating is something of a myth. Batley and Spen is not universally WWC, but it did vote Leave by 60% and the WWC vote is very substantial. Largely, it stayed with Labour and actually turned out. The predictions that Galloway was making real progress in the two Muslim wards look correct – the evidence that he was making much progress…

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“Probability factor of one to one. We have normality. I repeat: we have normality. Anything you still can’t cope with is therefore your own problem”

“Probability factor of one to one. We have normality. I repeat: we have normality. Anything you still can’t cope with is therefore your own problem”

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There has been much talk, since the advent of the vaccines, of a ‘return to normal’ in our lives with many organisations, not least Government, pressing for getting things back on track as soon as safely possible particularly in areas such as education. And whilst there is much debate about what is or is not ‘safely possible’ and at what point normality should return, no one seems to have asked whether we actually want to go back to normal or…

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Labour has a bigger problem in seeking power than Scotland: the Midlands….

Labour has a bigger problem in seeking power than Scotland: the Midlands….

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It is often said that Labour has no route to Downing Street without retrieving its former solid bloc of seats north of the border. Or winning back those “Red Wall” seats in the north-west and north-east of England. What is less often remarked upon is that it will not be enough – unless it can also do something about the Midlands. The part of the country which was until recently packed with marginals is fast moving them into safe Conservative…

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The case for Labour making an electoral pact

The case for Labour making an electoral pact

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There’s a lot of water to flow under the bridge before the next general election. The future of Scotland and potential boundary changes are just two issues that would change the dynamics. Nevertheless, this piece assesses the potential for opposition parties and their voters working together to deny the Conservatives a majority at the next election. The data behind the analysis can be found here.  Tactical voting is an established part of our first past the post electoral system. For the most part it is done by those…

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