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The case for Labour making an electoral pact

The case for Labour making an electoral pact

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There’s a lot of water to flow under the bridge before the next general election. The future of Scotland and potential boundary changes are just two issues that would change the dynamics. Nevertheless, this piece assesses the potential for opposition parties and their voters working together to deny the Conservatives a majority at the next election. The data behind the analysis can be found here.  Tactical voting is an established part of our first past the post electoral system. For the most part it is done by those…

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Annalena Baerbock to succeed Merkel?

Annalena Baerbock to succeed Merkel?

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Could the 40 year old Green nominee win September’s election? Finland has one. New Zealand has one. Is Germany about to join the list of countries with young, dynamic female premiers breathing new life into democratic politics? Forty-year old Annalena Baerbock co-leads the German Green Party and if recent polls are correct then her party is on course for a stunning performance in the autumn federal elections. A young mother from Lower Saxony, she is said to be tough and…

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Looking forward to tomorrow’s locals from Michael Thrasher

Looking forward to tomorrow’s locals from Michael Thrasher

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By some margin forecasting this year’s council seat gains and losses in 143 local authorities should be avoided at all costs.  With that caveat in mind, let’s have a go. We would normally base our assumptions of the likely outcome on the pattern shown in hundreds of council by-elections.  But these have been suspended in England for over a year – so no data!  Instead, we are using national polling figures for this exercise. Before we start some points of…

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The Great Unknown: A Betting History Of The Great British By-Election

The Great Unknown: A Betting History Of The Great British By-Election

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The modern era of political betting began in 1963 when Ladbrokes’ Ron Pollard opened up a book on the Conservative Party leadership contest. Shrewd punters could back the outsider Alec Douglas-Home at 16/1 over the hot 5/4 favourite Rab Butler….. In recent years we have seen political betting reach new heights, becoming an integral part of the political narrative itself. Figures as diverse as Jeremy Corbyn, Nigel Farage and Donald Trump have traded on their tag as “underdogs” to cause…

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Arlene Foster, End Of An Era. Who Next?

Arlene Foster, End Of An Era. Who Next?

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As We All Know Arlene Foster Has Resigned From Her DUP Leader & First Minister Duties. She Was Leader For Almost Six Years. There Were Ups And There Were Downs. In My Honest Opinion, She Simply Made Too Many Mistakes And The Pressure Has Been Building For A Number Of Months. With Arlene Leaving In May, Who Will Be The Next DUP Leader? Below Are The Runners & Profiles For Each Candidate: Name : Jeffrey Donaldson (Aged 58)Current Odds :…

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A freebie for Sir Keir from a Tory

A freebie for Sir Keir from a Tory

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 Harold Wilson said in 1964, “The Labour party is a moral crusade or it is nothing.” By 2015 the focus was rather on what was moral about a crusade: which in many ways epitomises Labour’s problems all too neatly. In a recent thread, it was suggested that Labour needed some policies to attract attention and get voters motivated once again. My response was a Workers Charter. I suggested the following policies. Guaranteed minimum hours in every contract of employment. A…

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A guest thread on Scottish independence and electoral reform

A guest thread on Scottish independence and electoral reform

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At the risk of sounding like Sion Simon soon there will be an election, in which Scottish nationalists will increase their majority.  The Scottish Conservative Party are campaigning on the principle that the last referendum should be a ‘once in a generation’ vote and to vote for the SCON Party to “stop indyref2”. If a majority in Scotland do vote for the Tories (or other unionist parties) then that is the end of the matter – feel free to ignore…

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Punter Psychology. Finding the perfect balance of arrogance and humility

Punter Psychology. Finding the perfect balance of arrogance and humility

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Picture: 1964 general election odds. There shouldn’t be any value bets, in theory. Every bet we place isn’t just a forecast about an election or other event. We are also making a statement; that the forecast made by the collective wisdom of every previous punter is wrong and that we have noticed before other smart gamblers can put the price right. In principle, every value bet is an opportunity someone else should already have taken. In practice, the market clearly…

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