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The recent by-elections have prompted a rash of discussions about whether and how the non-Tory parties can work together. It’s something I’ve thought about a lot over the years, with experience of both seats where Labour was the leading non-Tory party (Broxtowe, Islington North) and seats where it wasn’t (Chelsea, SW Surrey). A few facts to start off with: Historical comparisons make it implausible that Labour will win an absolute majority at the next election. In our volatile climate, you…

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In face of the chaotic last six years in British politics, it can be easy to lose sight of a constant phenomenon: governing parties do not defend by-election seats very well. Since 1979, governing parties have had to defend 65 seats in parliamentary by-elections but have only managed to win just under half of them (30). Of these 65 seats, Conservative governments have had to defend 43, winning an even lower proportion with 14 (33%). In fact, more Liberal Democrat…

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This is the second part of a thread on estimating Conservative seat numbers at the next election.  It contains statistical analysis: those not interested can skip to the Conclusion. Model The data in the previous part of this thread does seem to support our hypothesis that extreme results for the Conservatives are unlikely: in all bar one of the twenty-two elections, they have won between 25% and 75% of the seats, and in fourteen of them, their share has been…

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One of the interesting bets currently available is on the likelihood of a Conservative overall majority at the next election.  The markets were pricing this at 36% on 19 November, down from evens in July.  The general consensus is that an election is highly unlikely for eighteen months at least.  Long-term readers of this site may recall me arguing that you can’t predict the result of an election from mid-term opinion polls or leader ratings.  Nevertheless, the decline in the…

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The new premier cast her eye across the Cabinet table and took in the empty room. Soon her newly assembled cabinet would gather for the first meeting since the General Election of December 2024.  Rachel Reeves allowed herself a few moments to take it all in and just briefly marvel at how she had somehow ended up as Prime Minister. The terrible winters of 2021/2 and 2022/23 were of course responsible for the Labour landslide that had followed the collapse…

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Since 1979, British governments have tended to hold elections in the Spring.  According to Nigel Lawson’s memoirs, this was because Mrs Thatcher, having won in the Spring of 1979, thought that May and June were her lucky months, but subsequent Prime Ministers continued the practice.  Of the last 11 elections, only one (the most recent) was not held in April, May or June.  Subject to the five-year limit, the Prime Minister controlled the timing of the elections until the passage…

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