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Ten seats to watch at the next general election

Ten seats to watch at the next general election

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It’s never too soon to think about the next election and how that might look in detail. Let’s have a look at some of the individual constituencies that will tell the story of the night.  Yes, there is going to be a boundary review. So how on earth can we identify barometer seats now? The problem is less daunting than it looks. The latest review is going to keep seat numbers at 650, meaning that seat reallocations will be fairly measured. We know how…

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The dangerous first step towards the end of the World Wide Web as we know it

The dangerous first step towards the end of the World Wide Web as we know it

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Richard Tyndall on the Australian government move against Facebook So one day, when this terrible virus is finally under some semblance of control, we will be able to go back to the pub. We will be able to do something that we have been unable to do for far too long – socialise face to face with our friends. Hopefully we will be able to resurrect the Political Betting pub nights and prove to each other we really are human…

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Leader and government approval ratings and voting intention as a guide to general election results

Leader and government approval ratings and voting intention as a guide to general election results

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Some posters to this site have argued that leader or government approval ratings can be a better guide to general election results than the voting intention question, if not immediately before the vote, then early in the Parliament or in mid-term.  I have been meaning for some time to put this to the test.  I have used the IPSOS-MORI opinion poll and approval ratings data, which goes back to 1977, covering 11 general elections.  Conclusions I have found: three years…

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Unapproved thoughts. The government and free speech

Unapproved thoughts. The government and free speech

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Times change. And so does received wisdom. Fewer than 20 years ago, Boris Johnson saw no reason in principle to differentiate between gay marriage and consecrating a union between three men and a dog. This week, he clambered on the gay rights bandwagon, welcoming an MoD decision to return medals to military personnel dismissed for their sexuality (though actual financial compensation for their treatment seems to be beyond the current government). A virulently ambitious Conservative politician has found it necessary to perform a volte…

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IN (FEINT) PRAISE OF URSULA VON DER LEYEN

IN (FEINT) PRAISE OF URSULA VON DER LEYEN

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Who would have guessed that a month and a half after Britain finally left the European Single Market and Customs Union that it would be the European Commission President who is under the most pressure with some calls for her to resign? Or that German press could be leading with headlines like “the best advert for Brexit”? The EU’s vaccine debacle has certainly become the main international story which has led to a renewed focus on the politician who heads…

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A Butcher’s Bill for EU

A Butcher’s Bill for EU

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On Thursday morning the number of “EU Citizens” who have been killed by COVID, based on current official counts, stood at 500,809. It has broken the big half-million. The death rate in the EU-27 has been constant at between 3000 and 3500 per day for three months now. Half of EU deaths from COVID have occurred since November 26th, at a rate of one hundred thousand per month. The rate is startlingly consistent, and has finally dropped below 3000 this…

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Scots missed. The Parliamentary dynamics of Scottish independence

Scots missed. The Parliamentary dynamics of Scottish independence

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The Big Bang Theory has run more than a few seasons past its peak, but one of its more striking moments was Sheldon’s and Amy’s game Counterfactuals. One player had to build a question on a premise and then other players had to come up with, then defend, their answer. For example: “In a world where rhinoceroses are domesticated pets, who wins the Second World War?”   Such exercises would limber us up for a problem that might well be coming down the…

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Why the boundary changes probably matter less than you think

Why the boundary changes probably matter less than you think

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Sisyphus was happy, reckoned Albert Camus.  The Boundary Commissioners may have their own view on this: for the third time they are being asked to come up with new proposals.  Their proposals for 2012 and 2018 both came to nothing.  They are now beavering away on their proposals for 2024. Boundary reviews get wonks very excited.  By and large, they should simmer down.  They’re not half as important as is assumed, particularly for Labour and the Conservatives.  Here’s why. Notional…

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