In 2019 the Conservatives won an 80 seat majority with an 11.5% popular vote lead. Since then their polling lead has floated between 20% to around 0%. Right now it is mid to high single digits, though polls are a bit all over the place at the moment. They will probably win a majority again at the next election. That shouldn’t be a controversial statement, yet the betting markets will give you up to 2/1 on this outcome. Why? The…
From David Cowling – former head BBC political research Because the 2020 local elections were postponed due to the pandemic, this May will witness elections for incumbent candidates who were, overwhelmingly, last elected in either 2016 or 2017. Both national opinion polls and projections of national vote shares at the time suggest two very different benchmarks against which to measure the 2021 results. Those elections taking place with a 2016 benchmark are: the Scottish Parliament, Welsh Senned, London Mayor, Greater…
BBC Graphic Charity begins at home According to recent reports Boris Johnson appears to be taking that rather literally. Nevertheless, the sentiment is one that voters share. Voters of all parties suggested the govt was right to cut the foreign aid budget. Foreign aid is an excellent wedge issue for Boris Johnson to divide labour voters from labour politicians. And yet – making sweeping budgetary changes is easier announced than enacted. The cut from 0.7% to 0.5% of GDP may…
Cards on the table – I don’t understand the Labour Party any more. I used to – a quarter century of membership, Chair, Treasurer, Secretary, Councillor. Then, like so many long-term Labour voters, I left the party. For an opposition these should be opportune times. A pandemic which has been particularly harsh in the UK thanks to a series of government bungles has not only seen far more deaths than should have been, but needless economic pain as well. An…
Analysis of the most recent Ipsos Scotland poll With two months to go until the Holyrood elections, Ipsos MORI’s latest Scotland poll yet again finds the SNP ahead on voting intention – 52% of likely voters are minded to vote SNP for their constituency, and 47% say they will vote for them on their regional list. Both the Conservatives (on 23% constituency, 22% list) and Labour (15%/14%) continue to trail well behind. But as the well worn saying goes, a…
Margaret Thatcher’s only good joke – maybe her *only* joke – was likening the Liberal Democrats to Monty Python’s dead parrot. Today, the joke rings truer than ever. The Lib Dems have only 11 MPs left. Remainerism, the party’s great cause of the last five years, has joined the choir invisible. Sir Ed Davey was elected leader and nobody has noticed. It is possible he is “just resting”. But Britain needs the Ed and his party to step up, now…