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ANALYSING LABOUR-LIB DEM TACTICAL VOTING SINCE 1983

ANALYSING LABOUR-LIB DEM TACTICAL VOTING SINCE 1983

Following the stunning success for the Liberal Democrats at the North Shropshire by-election, former YouGov head, Peter Kellner, wrote in the Guardian: Byelection campaigns develop their own momentum: tactical voting in general elections is never as great. But back in 1997, when Tony Blair and Paddy Ashdown led their respective parties, tactical shifts of just a few percentage points cost the Conservatives about 30 seats they would otherwise have held. Nothing like that happened in 2019. Lib Dems could not…

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Four months of the weekly local by-election bet

Four months of the weekly local by-election bet

Last September, the politics team at Smarkets decided to start offering a market on one local by-election every week. We’ve had a look back at the results to see if we could learn anything about whether the betting markets provided any useful information about the outcomes. On average, there are about five local by-elections across the UK every Thursday. Unsurprisingly, we’re usually going to pick whichever one we think looks the most competitive. (One other factor we sometimes consider is…

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Pricing of a bet – Part 2 – The bet

Pricing of a bet – Part 2 – The bet

This is the second thread on the theory behind the recently established Smarkets market on the prospects of a Conservative lead by end of January (covered here).  The first part presented the theory of this bet.   This part presents a simplified worked example and has a mathematical annex, following which: The next part will examine historic evidence on the volatility of opinion polls, which is an important input variable and interesting in itself The final thread will look at the…

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MAYBE BABY: POPULATION POLITICS PART 2

MAYBE BABY: POPULATION POLITICS PART 2

Previously, I examined how conception and maternity rates had changed in England and Wales during the 2010s. Now for the tricky part – should the government seek to alter demographic trends, and if so, why, and how? In September 2021, the Social Market Foundation (SMF) published a briefing paper titled Baby bust and baby boom: Examining the liberal case for pronatalism. I’d recommend reading it in full as it provides a very good assessment of this subject. The paper assesses…

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MAYBE BABY: POPULATION POLITICS PART 1

MAYBE BABY: POPULATION POLITICS PART 1

The ONS reported in October 2021 that “the total fertility rate for England and Wales in 2020 fell to 1.58 children per woman, the lowest since records began in 1938.” Contrary to predictions of a baby boom, conceptions during the first COVID lockdown fell and didn’t begin to pick up until after restrictions were eased. What happens to fertility rates post-COVID remains to be seen. As a student of politics, it’s a subject that I’ve always been curious about. To…

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A look at how you should price a bet

A look at how you should price a bet

Part One – The bet Earlier this year, several PBers, including OGH, bet on there being a Labour lead by the end of the year.  (They won, because of the opinion poll covered here.  Well done!).   More recently, Smarkets has established a market on the prospects of a Conservative lead by end of January (covered here).  But this bet (‘the bet’) is perhaps the most interesting out there from a theoretical point of view.   When it offers good value is…

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The 2021 StJohn PB Christmas Crossword (Est. 2006)

The 2021 StJohn PB Christmas Crossword (Est. 2006)

ACROSS 1 PM reveals all power corrupts without honour – right? (6,7)  8 Cable polled Labour grandee (4)  9 Angry substitute gets somewhere to sit in another place (10) 10 Conservative PM introduces a new set of rules enforced by ministers (5,3)  11 Endorse man holding suitable backing (6) 13 Government expert, covering Cold War’s origin, working with US President (6,4)  16 Remains here and laments the first couple leaving (4)  17 VAT announcement of Labour leader (4)  18 Dancer…

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How would a “progressive alliance” work?

How would a “progressive alliance” work?

The recent by-elections have prompted a rash of discussions about whether and how the non-Tory parties can work together. It’s something I’ve thought about a lot over the years, with experience of both seats where Labour was the leading non-Tory party (Broxtowe, Islington North) and seats where it wasn’t (Chelsea, SW Surrey). A few facts to start off with: Historical comparisons make it implausible that Labour will win an absolute majority at the next election. In our volatile climate, you…

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