politicalbetting.com

Last September, the politics team at Smarkets decided to start offering a market on one local by-election every week. We’ve had a look back at the results to see if we could learn anything about whether the betting markets provided any useful information about the outcomes. On average, there are about five local by-elections across the UK every Thursday. Unsurprisingly, we’re usually going to pick whichever one we think looks the most competitive. (One other factor we sometimes consider is…

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This is the second thread on the theory behind the recently established Smarkets market on the prospects of a Conservative lead by end of January (covered here).  The first part presented the theory of this bet.   This part presents a simplified worked example and has a mathematical annex, following which: The next part will examine historic evidence on the volatility of opinion polls, which is an important input variable and interesting in itself The final thread will look at the…

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Previously, I examined how conception and maternity rates had changed in England and Wales during the 2010s. Now for the tricky part – should the government seek to alter demographic trends, and if so, why, and how? In September 2021, the Social Market Foundation (SMF) published a briefing paper titled Baby bust and baby boom: Examining the liberal case for pronatalism. I’d recommend reading it in full as it provides a very good assessment of this subject. The paper assesses…

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The ONS reported in October 2021 that “the total fertility rate for England and Wales in 2020 fell to 1.58 children per woman, the lowest since records began in 1938.” Contrary to predictions of a baby boom, conceptions during the first COVID lockdown fell and didn’t begin to pick up until after restrictions were eased. What happens to fertility rates post-COVID remains to be seen. As a student of politics, it’s a subject that I’ve always been curious about. To…

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Part One – The bet Earlier this year, several PBers, including OGH, bet on there being a Labour lead by the end of the year.  (They won, because of the opinion poll covered here.  Well done!).   More recently, Smarkets has established a market on the prospects of a Conservative lead by end of January (covered here).  But this bet (‘the bet’) is perhaps the most interesting out there from a theoretical point of view.   When it offers good value is…

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ACROSS 1 PM reveals all power corrupts without honour – right? (6,7)  8 Cable polled Labour grandee (4)  9 Angry substitute gets somewhere to sit in another place (10) 10 Conservative PM introduces a new set of rules enforced by ministers (5,3)  11 Endorse man holding suitable backing (6) 13 Government expert, covering Cold War’s origin, working with US President (6,4)  16 Remains here and laments the first couple leaving (4)  17 VAT announcement of Labour leader (4)  18 Dancer…

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The recent by-elections have prompted a rash of discussions about whether and how the non-Tory parties can work together. It’s something I’ve thought about a lot over the years, with experience of both seats where Labour was the leading non-Tory party (Broxtowe, Islington North) and seats where it wasn’t (Chelsea, SW Surrey). A few facts to start off with: Historical comparisons make it implausible that Labour will win an absolute majority at the next election. In our volatile climate, you…

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In face of the chaotic last six years in British politics, it can be easy to lose sight of a constant phenomenon: governing parties do not defend by-election seats very well. Since 1979, governing parties have had to defend 65 seats in parliamentary by-elections but have only managed to win just under half of them (30). Of these 65 seats, Conservative governments have had to defend 43, winning an even lower proportion with 14 (33%). In fact, more Liberal Democrat…

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