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How will the next POTUS affect the UK’s General Election?

How will the next POTUS affect the UK’s General Election?

Will British voters learn from the lessons of a new American Presidency? In a fantastic post over at the Spectator Magazine’s Coffee House blog, James Forsyth asks whether an expected Obama presidency will either prove or disprove Gordon Brown’s claim that “this is no time for a novice” He writes “If by the time of the next general election, which will probably be about 16 months into an Obama presidency, Obama is seen as a success, the line will lose…

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The Sundays get stuck into Mandelson

The Sundays get stuck into Mandelson

Is the new Cabinet “a supergroup or a sad tribute act”? Peter Mandelson’s return to Cabinet for a third time has given the Sunday papers plenty to consider. The man himself gives an interview to the Observer in which he states that he is “joined at the hip to the PM”, who will lead the party into the next election. The paper says that Miliband’s leadership ambitions are now dead in the water as the Blairites rally round during the…

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Is a landslide on the cards?

Is a landslide on the cards?

Or is this still fundamentally a tight race? Two weeks ago, I wrote an article that said “forbidding a landslide (ie a victory in the popular vote of more than 5%), the 2008 map is unlikely to look significantly different to the maps from 2000 and 2004”. I still think that is true, but the last two weeks have seen a marked movement in both the polls and the betting markets towards Barack Obama. Real Clear Politics (fresh from a…

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So how should Cameron respond?

So how should Cameron respond?

This is an original cartoon by Marf for LondonSketchBook.com Is a Shadow Cabinet re-shuffle the best way to manage a lull? The dramatic return to our shores of Peter Mandelson belies bespeaks a steely pragmatism – that an historic personal conflict has been tossed aside for either the national interest or the benefit of electoral mastery is no meagre move for a man derided as an egotist by his critics. To welcome back ‘the Prince of Darkness’ to the Cabinet,…

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An inspired decision or a desperate roll of the dice?

An inspired decision or a desperate roll of the dice?

Mandelson makes a surprise return in Cabinet reshuffle The big story this morning is the unexpected news that Peter Mandelson is set to return from Brussels and commence his third stint in Cabinet, this time as Business Secretary with a seat in the Lords. Elsewhere, John Hutton moves from Business to replace Des Browne at Defence, while Geoff Hoon takes over at Transport from the departing Ruth Kelly. Margaret Beckett returns in a “cabinet enforcer” role, Ed Miliband will head…

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Austria 2008 – live election results

Austria 2008 – live election results

Molterer (ÖVP), Van der Bellen (Greens), Strache (FPÖ), Haider (BZÖ), Faymann (SPÖ) Will the far-right surge result in another Grand Coalition? Welcome to live coverage on PB of the 2008 Austrian election results. The snap election was called after the Grand Coalition collapsed after only 18 months in office. More background is available here from the earlier PB article and here from Wikipedia. Early indications are that there has been a surge in support for the two far-right parties, the…

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Will this be our next US import?

Will this be our next US import?

After spousal introductions at conference, could debates be next? One of the novelties of this week in British politics was seeing the Prime Minister introduced at the Labour Party Conference by his wife, Sarah Brown. In a short introductory address, she was chosen to help her husband connect with voters and to put ‘a human face on government’. I think the consensus was that she did very well in an unfamiliar role, and her decision drew plaudits from across the…

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So how did we score the first debate?

So how did we score the first debate?

Which candidate will be happier with their performance? Given the spectacle presented for our delectation only a couple of hours ago, I cannot have been alone in wishing Senators McCain and Obama had resolved to stay in Washington, rather than attend the first Presidential debate at Ole Miss. In retrospect, I would actually have preferred that the negotiations over the Congressional bailout had been televised instead. The clear consensus on PB.com was that this was a boring affair, peppered with…

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