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Israel’s locals – a pointer to the Knesset?

Israel’s locals – a pointer to the Knesset?

A guest article from Shneur Odze On 11th November there were local elections for directly elected mayors and local councillors. They were largely expected to prove a gauge for the general election in February. However commentators have been searching to see if any indicators exist. I feel there are one or two. For the past 35 years there has been a token protest party which changes at every general election, starting with Dash the original centrist party led by Israel’s…

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How should we read Obama’s Cabinet choices?

How should we read Obama’s Cabinet choices?

And what else might happen in this term? I was a little surprised at the recent non-announcement that Hillary Clinton is to be offered the job of Secretary of State by President-Elect Obama. Unlike others, I see her as perfectly well qualified, and can understand that after having come so close to leading her party that her junior status in the Senate was not particularly appealing. I have no doubt that her network and reputation will allow her to do…

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Is the PM a true gambler?

Is the PM a true gambler?

Is his position-play strong enough to overcome a weak hand? Many years before I started political betting, I was an avid poker player. I wasn’t tremendously successful, but I broke even or better at some pretty tough clubs, and knew the game as well as most. As one of the few games with as rich a literature as chess, I understood this princely game sufficiently to appreciate the very best, even if I wasn’t worthy of sitting opposite them. I…

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Russia on the Brink – But of What?

Russia on the Brink – But of What?

Wikimedia Commons A guest article from Balakirev With oil prices in a slump, the rouble tumbling and domestic stock exchanges closing for days at a time, it’s tempting to imagine that the swaggering Russia visible over the past year or so is about to be replaced by a staggering Russia. Well, not quite and certainly not yet. But there are strong signs that it has finally sunk in with Moscow’s leadership that it is not immune from the swirling economic…

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Is this man really still the favourite?

Is this man really still the favourite?

Will George Osborne be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer? With all the talk swirling around George Osborne’s ‘breach of convention’ by commenting on the sharp decline of the pound against the dollar and euro, and what appears to be a co-ordinated campaign led by the Telegraph newspaper to see him moved, I decided to check Betfair’s ‘Next Chancellor market’. George Osborne is still the favourite if you consider the last traded price (3.8 for Osborne, 5.1 for Ed Balls),…

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Are big majorities undesirable?

Are big majorities undesirable?

Steamrollers can be tricky to drive In the rush to try and secure 60 US Senate seats, and to breach the 250-seat mark in the House of Representatives, I wonder whether the Obama campaign ever considered that you could have too much of a good thing. For instance, I found it strange that, with such a fundraising advantage, Obama wasn’t redistributing his campaign’s wealth to tight Congressional races. This would have allowed for extra members of the Democratic majority in…

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Henry G Manson: Lammy for Mayor?

Henry G Manson: Lammy for Mayor?

Back Lammy to Lead Labour’s London Bid The recent months have seen some interesting little developments that could impact on who will be Labour’s mayoral candidate in London. Ladbrokes have been first off the mark with a very thorough market for who will be the next Mayor of London. Boris Johnson is 5/6 and as much as it pains me to say it, I think this is a value choice. However it is also worth examining the possible runners and…

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Who will be the next Speaker of the House of Commons?

Who will be the next Speaker of the House of Commons?

Who will be dragged to the chair next? When Michael Martin decides to step down as Speaker of the House of Commons, a new mechanism for election to this office will be used for the first time. Following the glut of nominees for the post in 2000, proposals recommended by Tony Benn were modified and adopted by the House Select Committee, whereby MPs will vote by secret ballot, eliminating a candidate who comes last or receives less than 5% of…

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