politicalbetting.com

Picture: Thatched roofed houses in Guyana, credit Wikimedia Commons Guyana is a tiny South American country, perched on the Atlantic coast, with Venezuela to the northwest, Brazil to the south and west, and Suriname to the east. It has a population of just 800,000, and a GDP per capita of around $10,000 US.   Why is this insignificant little crumb on the world map worthy of interest? Because current events around Guyana may have larger geopolitical consequences, and could potentially…

Read More Read More

There are either 12 or perhaps fewer months to the General Election, and the Labour lead in the polls seems solidly in the mid to high teens. The recent Autumn Statement seems to be having no real effect on that lead. Is it possible for the Tories to close that gap? One possibility mooted is that Reform Party (REFUK) voters will switch to the Conservatives when that GE focuses minds. It does seem as if REFUKs predecessor The Brexit Party…

Read More Read More

I remember the overthrow of the Shah quite vividly. Television coverage of young radicals with guns out on the street demanding the end of corruption, a more open society and a better distribution of wealth. The Shah fled and Ayatollah Khomeini flew into a tumultuous welcome. Then the state clammed up and the revolution ate its children. For over forty years now Iran has presented an austere face to the outside world, a theocratic monolith prepared to face off to…

Read More Read More

In the UK we can sometimes get carried away demonising our politicians. But let’s be honest neither Rishi Sunak nor Keir Starmer are going to frighten anyone, they are as scary as a cup of hot Horlicks at bedtime. Argentina of the other hand has decided to show the world what scary looks like. Argentina by any measure should be one of the world’s richest countries. A large agricultural sector, large reserves of precious metals, oil, gas and a sizeable…

Read More Read More

Remember Ukraine ? Since 7th October the war in the East of Europe has been pretty much forgotten.  The Grim Reaper has probably taken a bigger toll in October in Ukraine than he has in the Middle East but that’s no longer news. And still the fighting goes on. The Russians have been throwing lots of their troops into attacks to absorb Ukraine’s efforts. The attacks have a times resembled the second world war with barely trained troops attacking in…

Read More Read More

While the UK gets itself in a jumble on Palestine or Israel our next door neighbour has no such qualms. Ireland is quite clearly fighting Palestine’s corner. Sinn Fein backing the Palestinians is no surprise, but the main parts of the Irish establishment have fallen into line too. Leo Varadkar has gone off script several times and has been arguing against the mainstream EU position much to the annoyance of Germany. The Irish President Michael D Higgins got into a…

Read More Read More

In Part 1 I argued that Net Zero is the wrong path for the UK. To be clear that does not mean we should not have an environmental plan we definitely need one. Just not the one in place at present. Net Zero is focused on solving worldwide problems , we need instead to focus on our own requirements.  For a modern economy energy is its life blood it can also be the source of carbon. So, let’s start with:…

Read More Read More

Net Zero, that’s where our bank balances are headed on current trends. According to the OBR it will cost £1.4 trillion to complete Net Zero by 2050, that’s more than 3 times the cost of the COVID emergency, but obviously over a longer timescale.  Unfortunately, I don’t believe that’s the full number as our governments ( of any hue ) seems to have an uncanny knack of underestimating both cost and timing. Think of the Millenium Dome, HS2, anything IT;…

Read More Read More