Introduction In my recent entry in the Measurement series, I was chastised by @Cleitophon who pointed out that he came here for “…brutal empirical analysis about the electoral landscape – not this ephemeral theory…”. It’s a fair point, and one that I share. So, what empirical analysis can my small brain bring you? Let’s try the 2024 Finnish Presidential election, the first round of which is 28 January 2024. Finland What do I know about Finland? Not a lot. I…
A total of 81 of entries were received for the PB Prediction Competition 2024 and I have included a summary of those entries below. Reflecting the prediction challenge I am struck by how quickly the news agenda shifts. Most entrants predicted the party leaders will remain unchanged but in the days since entries closed, first Davey and then Starmer have come under pressure from the PO Scandal, so who knows how safe those predictions will be. ‘Events dear boy, events!’ …
INTRODUCTION The concept of a political elite is much in vogue recently. I find it difficult to cope with the recency, because the existence of a group of people above others is older than Britain: the term “privilege” is derived from “privilegium”, a private law. The British class structure which Thatcherism was supposed to overthrow had existed for centuries, and in turn dates back to divisions between clergy, nobility, landowners, etc. We could spend a lively time talking about how…
“In order to save space the word esquire has not been added to any name, though of course such should be added in every ease when no inconsistent addition is affixed.” – Kelly’s Handbook to the Upper Ten Thousand, 1875 In the ages before universal suffrage, it was assumed that society was run by an aristocracy. There was a certain flexibility in the British version of this. One could rise (within certain limits) – medicine, science and industry allowed commoners…
This is part of a series about measuring political concepts. This one is about classification of parties. Introduction In May 2022, SNP MP Mhairi Black said that the Government was “sleepwalking closer to fascism”. This engendered discussion about whether she was right, and that conversation fell into distinct grooves. Events since then have kept this discussion fresh, with various bodies being characterized as fascist or not, reaching its zenith or nadir in the recent essay by former PB contributor @SeanT…
Just a quick reminder that entries for PB Predictions Competition 2024 must be posted by 23:59 on Saturday 6th January at the latest. Most of you will know that TSE has generously offered a prize of £100 in Amazon vouchers to the winner at the end of the year, in addition to which someone will win the kudos of being the Supreme PB Prediction Guru of 2024! We have had had a great response so far, with 65 entries at the…
Picuture: John William Waterhouse – The Crystal Ball – Wikipedia Public Domain OK PBers, here’s a bit of New Year fun. Make your 2024 predictions against the following political, economic and sporting questions and win yourself a virtual silver trophy (it’s huge – about the same size as TSE’s modesty) and, more importantly, the kudos of being the Supreme PB Prediction Guru of 2024! TSE will be donating one hundred pounds worth of Amazon vouchers to the winner of this…
Today marks the last day in office de facto of Amanda Spielman, who has been the longest serving Chief Inspector of Schools since Ofsted’s foundation in 1992. She is to be replaced by Sir Martin Oliver, who has a formidable in tray to cope with. Let us consider the problems that face him: On Spielman’s own admission Ofsted is currently completely discredited. It is difficult to argue with this assessment given that Ofsted has just been declared guilty of lying…