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Local By-Election Preview: September 5th 2013

Local By-Election Preview: September 5th 2013

  Fenside on Boston (Eng Dem Defence) Last Local Election (2011): Con 19, Others 10, Lab 3 (Con overall majority of 6) Last Election in ward (Emboldened denotes elected) English Democrats 231, 195 Boston Independents 182, 176 Labour 162, 159 Liberal Democrats 68, 51 Boston in Lincolnshire (part of the Boston and Skegness constituency) seems on the surface to be a perfectly normal Conservative heartland and back at the 2003 local elections it was (Con 12, Lab 11, Lib Dem…

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Winderemere, Bowness North By-Election Preview: August 29th 2013

Winderemere, Bowness North By-Election Preview: August 29th 2013

  Windermere, Bowness North on South Lakeland (Lib Dem Defence) Last Local Election (2012): Lib Dem 34, Con 13, Lab 4 (Liberal Democrat majority of 17) Result of last election in ward (2011): Lib Dem 608 (65%), Con 280 (30%), Lab 47 (5%) It is very rare to have just a single by-election on one day and this ward in South Lakeland (which covers the Lake District) is one of only three councils in Cumbria that hold elections every year…

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Local By-Election Preview: August 22nd 2013

Local By-Election Preview: August 22nd 2013

  Askern Spa on Doncaster (Lab Defence) Last Local Election (2012): Lab 50, Con 9, Lib Dem 3, Ind 1 (Labour overall majority of 37) Ward results in last electoral cycle 2010: Con 1,502 (27%), Lab 2,756 (49%), Eng Dems 1,415 (25%) 2011: Con 831 (21%), Lab 2,205 (55%), Ind 416 (10%), Eng Dems 574 (14%) 2012: Con 954 (30%), Lab 2,269 (70%) At the start of modern electoral history, Doncaster was a fascinating place. A true Con / Lab…

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This just possibly could be the moment for Yvette: A Labour insider gives his view of EdM’s prospects and what might happen

This just possibly could be the moment for Yvette: A Labour insider gives his view of EdM’s prospects and what might happen

If Ed survives till the end of October he should be okay If (and it’s still a big if) Ed M leaves before election then Yvette will almost certainly take over. She’s been conspicuous by her silence this summer. Shocking really. If however Ed M disappoints at general election then Andy Burnham will also go for it and have a pretty decent chance as will Chuka Umunna. The trouble for Ed is that his team around him is so weak…

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Harry Hayfield: How retiring MPs could add to Lib Dem woes

Harry Hayfield: How retiring MPs could add to Lib Dem woes

With recent polls putting the Liberal Democrats at 10% of the national vote (in a virtual tie with UKIP and half their general election vote in 2010), it is safe to say that most Liberal Democrat activists are starting to get just a little on the edgy side about the next election (now less than 21 months away, assuming there isn’t a vote of no confidence as in Germany a few years ago). The most recent polls suggest that Labour…

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Take polls with large pinch of salt. Do not consume in excess!

Take polls with large pinch of salt. Do not consume in excess!

A guest slot from Nick Sparrow – former head of polling at ICM In a search for more accurate vote intention estimates following the debacle of 1992, one modification we made was to prompt respondents with the names of the main political parties, Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat (and SNP or Plaid Cymru in relevant areas). The prompts reminded people of the existence of the Liberal Democrats – a partly forgotten alternative between elections. The prompts also may have had the…

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Harry Hayfield’s local by-election preview : August 1st 2013

Harry Hayfield’s local by-election preview : August 1st 2013

Codnor and Waingroves on Amber Valley (Lab Defence) Last Local Election (2012): Con 24, Lab 21 (Conservative overall majority of 3) Ward Results (during last electoral cycle) 2010: Lab 1,159 (43%), Con 1,127 (42%), BNP 391 (15%) 2011: No Election 2012: Lab 825 (58%), Con 339 (24%), UKIP 198 (14%), BNP 59 (4%) In the 1970 general election, one sight above all showed what a shock result that election was for Harold Wilson, Belper (a seat that in 1966 had…

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Harry Hayfield previews today’s Ynys Môn Assembly By-Election

Harry Hayfield previews today’s Ynys Môn Assembly By-Election

It’s been quite a while since we have had an Assembly by-election (in fact well over seven years), but Ynys Môn is a by-election without compare. Firstly, the former member is still with us. Ieuan Wyn Jones may have resigned from the Assembly but as the new chairman of the enterprise zone centred on Menai Bridge, who is to say that once that task has been completed he might decide to come back to the Assembly on the regional list…

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