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Take polls with large pinch of salt. Do not consume in excess!

Take polls with large pinch of salt. Do not consume in excess!

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A guest slot from Nick Sparrow – former head of polling at ICM In a search for more accurate vote intention estimates following the debacle of 1992, one modification we made was to prompt respondents with the names of the main political parties, Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat (and SNP or Plaid Cymru in relevant areas). The prompts reminded people of the existence of the Liberal Democrats – a partly forgotten alternative between elections. The prompts also may have had the…

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Harry Hayfield’s local by-election preview : August 1st 2013

Harry Hayfield’s local by-election preview : August 1st 2013

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Codnor and Waingroves on Amber Valley (Lab Defence) Last Local Election (2012): Con 24, Lab 21 (Conservative overall majority of 3) Ward Results (during last electoral cycle) 2010: Lab 1,159 (43%), Con 1,127 (42%), BNP 391 (15%) 2011: No Election 2012: Lab 825 (58%), Con 339 (24%), UKIP 198 (14%), BNP 59 (4%) In the 1970 general election, one sight above all showed what a shock result that election was for Harold Wilson, Belper (a seat that in 1966 had…

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Harry Hayfield previews today’s Ynys Môn Assembly By-Election

Harry Hayfield previews today’s Ynys Môn Assembly By-Election

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It’s been quite a while since we have had an Assembly by-election (in fact well over seven years), but Ynys Môn is a by-election without compare. Firstly, the former member is still with us. Ieuan Wyn Jones may have resigned from the Assembly but as the new chairman of the enterprise zone centred on Menai Bridge, who is to say that once that task has been completed he might decide to come back to the Assembly on the regional list…

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How long will it take for the Lib Dems to recover?

How long will it take for the Lib Dems to recover?

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Henry G Manson on the junior coalition partner This summer Nick Clegg said he wants his party to become a “fully-fledged party of government”. Despite that his party faces wipeout in 2014 and 2015 on top of the electoral hammer blows it’s received since it formed a Coalition with the Conservatives. More than half of the people who voted for the Liberal Democrats in 2010 have deserted them. The party has fewer than 3,000 councillors for the first time in…

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Local By-Election Preview: July 25th 2013

Local By-Election Preview: July 25th 2013

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Braintree East on Braintree (Lab Defence) Last Local Election (2011): Con 47, Lab 9, Greens 2, Ind 2 (Conservative overall majority of 34) Ward Result: (Emboldened denotes elected) Elwyn Bishop Lab 762 41.9% David Messer C 759 41.7% Collette Gibson Lab 756 Eric Lynch Lab 710 Luke Harrington C 691 Rikki Williams C 668 Wendy Partridge Grn 297 16.3% “The Only Way is Essex” could be a by word for how to win a general election. At the 1997 general…

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Why do so many Tory MPs have second jobs?

Why do so many Tory MPs have second jobs?

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The Henry G Manson Friday column Ed Miliband’s decision to clamp down on the number of Labour MPs who have second jobs caused some surprise the other week. Following the 2015 general election no Labour MP will be able to work more than the value of 15% of their salary. Miliband called on other parties to follow suit. The way this story was reported suggested that if this policy was a stealth attack on the Conservative Party. But why? There…

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Local By-Election Preview: July 18th 2013

Local By-Election Preview: July 18th 2013

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  Connah’s Quay, Golftyn on Flintshire (Lab Defence) Last Local Elections (2012): Lab 31, Ind 23, Con 7, Lib Dem 7, Plaid 1 (No Overall Control, Lab short by 4) Ward Result: Lab 582 + 553 (75%), Ind 382 (25%) Flintshire (created out of the remains of Clwyd along with Denbighshire and Wrexham) has always been a strongly Labour area (even during the worse times for Labour). This was demonstrated at the 1983 general election when Alyn and Deeside (made…

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It’s time for a level playing field when choosing Labour’s next leader

It’s time for a level playing field when choosing Labour’s next leader

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Henry G Manson on what proposed changes could mean Labour’s electoral college for determining its leader is currently divided and weighted into thirds. MPs & MEPs making up one third, party members another & affiliate members (members of trade unions and other socialist societies) the final third. What this means in practice is that the vote of an MP is worth considerably more than the individual vote of a party member and even more so an affiliate member. In 2010…

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