We are now less than 2 weeks to go to the election and postal ballots have already gone out. It is an unusual election, but surely it is the case that every election has unique aspects. When speculating on results, voter turnout may be a key issue. I see this as two issues really. The first is the overall turnout, and second is the turnout by different demographic groups. Will it be the young or the old? C2DE or ABC1?…
On the 4th May 1471 the Yorkist forces of Edward IV defeated the Lancastrian Army of Edward, Prince of Westminster in one of the most decisive battles of the Wars Of The Roses. Although slightly outnumbered, the success of the White Rose gang was no great surprise and it is likely winning punters got little better than evens on their wagers. Shrewd punters on the forthcoming election battle of Tewkesbury on July 4th 2024 may however do slightly better, and…
So for a bit of fun, I decided to look at the Survation MRP polling conducted between 31st May and 13th June. This showed that all but 72 Tory MPs would lose their seats and I wondered what the make up of the Tory party would look like after the election if this prediction came true. Below are listed the 72 MPs who Survation suggest will survive the Great Cull of 2024. They are listed from largest lead to smallest…
A General Election is supposed to answer the question of who runs the country, but we already have the answer for July 4th 2024: it will be Labour running the country. From their side, the only outstanding answer required is whether they have a big majority, or a very big majority. Or even a VERY very big majority.From the other side, there are other and more interesting questions: what kind of a result will the Conservatives get? And what will…
Nottinghamshire and Derbyshire are in part a section of the Red Wall. At present we have 22 MPs, 5 in Nottingham and Derby, and the other 17 in County seats. Back in March in the PB comments I suggested that of the 8 County seats in Nottinghamshire, currently all Conservative, 5 to 7 would flip to Labour – possibly excepting Newark (Robert Jenrick) which has a majority of 22k and is no 256 on Labour’s target list according to Election…
John William Waterhouse – The Crystal Ball – Wikipedia Public Domain To lighten the mood a little during the long UK General Election campaign I thought I might provide a brief update on the PB Prediction Competition. Firstly, a reminder of the 10 questions that were set, including the answers for those that are settled: 1. The smallest Labour lead with a BPC registered pollster in Q1 2024. Answer: 11%, More in Common (7–11 Feb). 2. Date of the next…
Stodge gives his analysis on London London is home to 75 of the 650 Constituencies in the forthcoming General Election, an increase of two from 2019. At the last election, Labour “won” London with 48% of the vote, the Conservatives got 32%, the Liberal Democrats 15%, the Greens 3% and the Brexit Party 1.5%. This, however, produced no net change with Labour winning 49 seats (including Putney, their only gain in England from the Conservatives), the Conservatives winning 21 seats…
Like many on here, I have spent some time sifting the constituency markets looking for value bets. Boundary changes mean that Ordnance Survey’s excellent Election Maps site is required in addition to Wikipedia. I’ve generally stayed away from the Conservative-Labour battlegrounds and focussed on seats where it’s not clear who will be the main challenger to the Conservatives or the SNP. However, I have found two seats that provide interesting case studies for how our politics have realigned in the…