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Local By-Election Preview : June 5th 2014

Local By-Election Preview : June 5th 2014

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Clydesdale South on South Lanarkshire (SNP defence) Result of last election to council (2012): Labour 33, Scottish Nationalists 28, Conservatives 3, Independents 2, Liberal Democrat 1 (No Overall Control, Labour short by 1) Result of last election in ward (2012) : Emboldened denotes elected Scottish National Party 1,625, 313 (42%) Labour 1,149, 875 (44%) Conservatives 487 (10%) United Kingdom Independence Party 199 (4%) Candidates duly nominated: Donna Hood (Con), Donald MacKay (UKIP), Gordon Muir (Lab), George Sneddon (SNP), Ruth Thomas…

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Local By-Election Preview: Local Election Polling Day (May 22nd 2014)

Local By-Election Preview: Local Election Polling Day (May 22nd 2014)

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As there are 74 local by-elections being held today it would be impossible to profile them all, so I have chosen the ones that could be rather juicy given the prospect of the expected UKIP flood. Willingham on Cambridgeshire (Con defence) Result of last election to council (2013): Conservatives 32, Liberal Democrats 14, United Kingdom Independence Party 12, Labour 7, Independents 4 (No Overall Control, Conservatives short by 3) Result of last election in ward (2013): Conservative 882 (40%), United…

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Harry Hayfield: YouGov have had their say, now it is my turn

Harry Hayfield: YouGov have had their say, now it is my turn

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Since the start of the year, I have been tracking all the polls that have been published about the Euros and taking sage advice from Mike’s postings about polling companies not prompting for the Greens and taking in account all the discussions about what “An Independence from Europe” may have on UKIP, I have come to the following conclusion. It’s too darn close to call. Based on all the polls, I am having a very hard time separating Labour and…

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Checking the Political Weather in Wales

Checking the Political Weather in Wales

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Results of the May Welsh Political Barometer In 2009 the Conservatives were the big success story of the European elections in Wales, topping the poll in a Welsh national election for the first time in over a century (I haven’t been able to track down an earlier occurrence, Labour has topped every poll since 1918 when the Coalition Liberals stormed to victory under David Lloyd George). This was mainly down to Labour’s nosedive (down 12.2 points since 2004) rather than…

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Corporeal on The Passion of the Ukippers

Corporeal on The Passion of the Ukippers

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As Mike noted at the time the latest round of 2014Euro polls came back with a pretty wide range of results, ranging from UKIP leading by 11 points with ComRes, down to ICM putting them in 3rd and 4 points off the top. So I did a little digging. What I think is causing at least the main part of the disparity is how the different pollsters treat certainty to vote responses. ICM operate a weighting system based on a…

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Local By-Election Preview: May 8th 2014

Local By-Election Preview: May 8th 2014

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Roman Bank on Fenland (Conservative defence) Result of last election for council (2011): Conservatives 34, Independents 4, Liberal Democrats 2 (Conservative majority of 28) Result of last election for ward (2011) : Emboldened denotes elected Conservatives 1,256, 1,092, 1,007 Labour 590 Liberal Democrats 361 Candidates duly nominated: Samantha Clark (Con), Stephen Court (Lib Dem), Barry Diggle (Lab), Alan Lay (UKIP), Erbie Murat (Ind) Fenland (located between Huntingdonshire and King’s Lynn) is about a bedrock of Conservative support as you can…

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Local By-Election Result : May 1st 2014

Local By-Election Result : May 1st 2014

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Caol and Mallaig on Highland (Independent defence) Result: Ind 932 (39% -40%), SNP 726 (30% +15%), NPI 537 (22% +20%), UKIP 133 (6%), Scottish Christian Party 63 (3% +1%) Total Independent vote: 1,469 (61% -18%) Independent HOLD on the fourth count on a swing of 17% from Ind to SNP Turnout: 34.4%

Local By-Election Preview : May 1st 2014

Local By-Election Preview : May 1st 2014

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Caol and Mallaig on Highland (Independent defence) Result of last election to council (2012): Independent 33, SNP 22, Liberal Democrat 15, Labour 8, Non Party Independent 2 (No Overall Control, Independents short by 8) Result of ward at last election (2012) : Emboldened denotes elected Independents 905, 710, 506, 71 (79%) Scottish National Party 411 (15%) Conservatives 66 (2%) Non Party Independent 60 (2%) Scottish Christian Party 45 (2%) Candidates duly nominated: William MacDonald (SNP), Liam Simmonds (UKIP), Ben Thompson…

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