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Even though the last 3 polls have edged a touch to an IndyRef YES the betting is still strongly on NO

Even though the last 3 polls have edged a touch to an IndyRef YES the betting is still strongly on NO

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Apart from a little pre-debate burst the markets remain stable Given the spate of polls over the weekend all showing that YES was edging up I was half-expecting a rally in the YES price on Betfair. It did move a touch but it is now back in the 6.8-7 range which in percentage terms converts to a 14-15% implied probability. The next event that could move things is the BBC TV debate next Monday. Salmond, surely will have learned from…

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Constituency polling from these key LAB-CON marginals could give us the best indicators so far

Constituency polling from these key LAB-CON marginals could give us the best indicators so far

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What’s happening the 2-4% range of marginals? Thanks to Lord Ashcroft and to a lesser extent Survation we are now seeing more full constituency polling in key marginals than has ever been available before. This is not the old-style marginals polling where maybe 100-200 are sampled in each seat and an overall swing figure is produced. What’s being made available are full single seat polls with proper sample sizes Lord Ashcroft has announced that a new round will be published…

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George needs to find a way of making UKIP voters less economically pessimistic

George needs to find a way of making UKIP voters less economically pessimistic

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An opportunity for the Tories in the 2015 budget? One of the great things about taking part in Edinburgh Festival of Politics was being able to meet up again with Professor John Curtice, who must be the county’s leading political scientist. Talking about UKIP voters he made a point that I’ve not really looked at before – their economic pessimism particularly when related to their own situations. Look at the chart above based on data from yesterday’s YouGov/ST poll. The…

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“An independence referendum is like a normal election on steroids”

“An independence referendum is like a normal election on steroids”

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Window display from shop in Edinburgh's Royal Mile pic.twitter.com/tq1c1MeNKw — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 18, 2014 YouGov/Times poll: After excluding DKs it’s YES 43%+3: NO 57%(-3) I’ve just got back from three days in Edinburgh where I was totally immersed in the momentous decision that the Scottish people are due to make in the referendum on September 18th. I was a panellist at the Festival of Politics which was held in the superb Scottish Parliament Building just across the road…

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Local By-Election Results : August 14th 2014

Local By-Election Results : August 14th 2014

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  South Normanton East on Bolsover (Lab Defence) Result: Labour 293 (71%), Conservative 120 (29%) Labour HOLD Knight’s Hill on Lambeth (Lab Defence) Result: Labour 1,265 (65%), Conservative 248 (13%), Green 230 (12%), UKIP 99 (5%), Liberal Democrat 94 (5%), Non Party Independent 51 (3%) Labour HOLD Harry Hayfield

Local By-Election Preview : August 14th 2014

Local By-Election Preview : August 14th 2014

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South Normanton East on Bolsover (Lab Defence) Result of last election to council (2011): Labour 32, Independents 4, Green 1 (Labour majority of 27) Result of last election in ward (2011): Emboldened denotes elected Labour 647, 597 Conservative 248, 228 British National Party 176 Candidates duly nominated: Tracey Cannon (Lab), Robert Sainsbury (Con) Bolsover is one of those places that if it wasn’t for characters like Dennis Skinner MP (the so called “Beast of Bolsover”) wouldn’t really generate any interest…

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Local By-Election Results: August 7th 2014

Local By-Election Results: August 7th 2014

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Broadley Common, Epping Upland and Nazing on Epping Forest (Con Defence) Result: Conservatives 155 (50% -34%), UKIP 122 (40%), Green 23 (7% -3%), Liberal Democrats 7 (2% -4%) Conservative HOLD with a majority of 33 (10%) on a swing of 37% from Conservative to UKIP Warboys and Bury on Huntingdonshire (Con Defence) Result: Conservative 616 (47% +1%), UKIP 560 (42% +16%), Liberal Democrats 78 (6% -7%), Labour 72 (5% -10%) Conservative HOLD with a majority of 56 (5%) on a…

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Local By-Election Preview: August 7th 2014

Local By-Election Preview: August 7th 2014

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Broadley Common, Epping Upland and Nazing on Epping Forest (Con Defence) Result of last election to council (2014): Conservatives 37, Residents 12, Liberal Democrats 3, Independents 2, United Kingdom Independence Party 2, Green 1, Labour 1 (Conservative majority of 16) Result of ward at last election (2011): Conservatives 585 (84%), Greens 69 (10%), Liberal Democrats 43 (6%) Candidates duly nominated: Robert Glozier (Con), William Hartington (Green), Ron McEvoy (UKIP), Arnold Verrall (Lib Dem) Epping Forest, a rock solid Conservative seat…

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