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If the swing-back theorists are right the proportion of 2010 LD who’ve switched to LAB will decline

If the swing-back theorists are right the proportion of 2010 LD who’ve switched to LAB will decline

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There’s absolutely no sign of that happening yet The chart shows the monthly average proportion of all 2010 LDs in the twice-weekly Populus polls since the series started in July 2013. So far, as the chart shows, this group of switchers (“Labour’s electoral clutch” as they’ve been described) are remaining solid and are propping up the red team’s poll ratings. In yesterday’s Ashcroft polling of the marginals the level of switching was higher than in national polls and, interestingly, it…

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Take LAB majority odds at 2-1 or longer – this is now a great value bet

Take LAB majority odds at 2-1 or longer – this is now a great value bet

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Yesterday’s batch of Lord Ashcroft polls of key CON-LAB marginals is further evidence that the betting price on CON majority is far too tight and that on a LAB one too long. It is very hard looking at all the voter dynamics to make any case whatsoever for a CON majority. Time is passing quickly and there’s nothing at all from the seats that will decide this election that the Tories are going to better their 2010 performance. Rather it…

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CON hopes that UKIP returners will eventually swing their way are undermined by this Lord Ashcroft finding

CON hopes that UKIP returners will eventually swing their way are undermined by this Lord Ashcroft finding

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CON government just 2% ahead of LAB one amongst UKIP voters After the July round of Ashcroft marginals polling I highlighted the “preferred GE2015 outcome” polling which surprisingly had a CON government only 1% ahead of a LAB one. Well another month and data from different group of CON held marginals to look at and we find almost the same pattern – only the CON government preferred outcome lead is 2% and not 1%. What strikes me is that as…

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LAB doing better against the Tories in key marginals than in national polling

LAB doing better against the Tories in key marginals than in national polling

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CON being killed in the marginals by UKIP & LD-LAB switching @LordAshcroft headline on his latest round of marginals polling http://t.co/AoSsiFHXH7 sums it up. pic.twitter.com/fzkCivDkwa — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 20, 2014 On the basis of today's round of @LordAshcroft polls LAB is doing better in the marginals and is heading for working majority — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 20, 2014 LAB taking a third of all 2010 LD voters in latest batch of LAB-CON marginals polled by @LordAshcroft much…

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Salmond says he’s ready to put his job on the line and even disband the SNP to help secure a YES vote

Salmond says he’s ready to put his job on the line and even disband the SNP to help secure a YES vote

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Salmond says he'd step down as SNP leader if he thought that would help YES http://t.co/XRpXCGiZil pic.twitter.com/Ojdy5roX6A — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 20, 2014 Just ten days before the first postal ballots arrive In the wake of polling suggesting that Alex Salmond himself might be hurting the YES case it has been made known that the First Minister is saying publicly that if the price of winning independence is his job then he’s ready to step aside. This comes after…

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Even though the last 3 polls have edged a touch to an IndyRef YES the betting is still strongly on NO

Even though the last 3 polls have edged a touch to an IndyRef YES the betting is still strongly on NO

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Apart from a little pre-debate burst the markets remain stable Given the spate of polls over the weekend all showing that YES was edging up I was half-expecting a rally in the YES price on Betfair. It did move a touch but it is now back in the 6.8-7 range which in percentage terms converts to a 14-15% implied probability. The next event that could move things is the BBC TV debate next Monday. Salmond, surely will have learned from…

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Constituency polling from these key LAB-CON marginals could give us the best indicators so far

Constituency polling from these key LAB-CON marginals could give us the best indicators so far

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What’s happening the 2-4% range of marginals? Thanks to Lord Ashcroft and to a lesser extent Survation we are now seeing more full constituency polling in key marginals than has ever been available before. This is not the old-style marginals polling where maybe 100-200 are sampled in each seat and an overall swing figure is produced. What’s being made available are full single seat polls with proper sample sizes Lord Ashcroft has announced that a new round will be published…

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George needs to find a way of making UKIP voters less economically pessimistic

George needs to find a way of making UKIP voters less economically pessimistic

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An opportunity for the Tories in the 2015 budget? One of the great things about taking part in Edinburgh Festival of Politics was being able to meet up again with Professor John Curtice, who must be the county’s leading political scientist. Talking about UKIP voters he made a point that I’ve not really looked at before – their economic pessimism particularly when related to their own situations. Look at the chart above based on data from yesterday’s YouGov/ST poll. The…

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