Browsed by
Author: Editor

Harry Hayfield’s Local By-Election Preview: August 28th 2014

Harry Hayfield’s Local By-Election Preview: August 28th 2014

Comments 0 Comment

Yes, we all know that the media is focusing on Clacton this evening but let us not forget that Clacton is not the only show in town! North Jesmond on Newcastle upon Tyne (Lib Dem Defence) Result of last election to council (2014): Labour 52, Liberal Democrats 24, Independents 2 (Labour majority of 26) Result of ward at last election (2011): Liberal Democrats 870 (37%), Labour 770 (33%), Conservatives 419 (18%), Greens 273 (12%0 Candidates duly nominated: Duncan Crute (Con),…

Read More Read More

The real worry for the Tories is if Carswell is able to take much of his organisation with him

The real worry for the Tories is if Carswell is able to take much of his organisation with him

Comments 0 Comment

Douglas Carswell, red hot favourite to win his seat, Clacton, for UKIP. See PaddyPower http://t.co/0KpwlJgy4T pic.twitter.com/V01q41DqqX — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 28, 2014 And will his defection encourage others? Back in 2005 Douglas Carswell was one of a select group of Tories who won seats from LAB. He took Harwich. Then, five years later in the new seat of Clacton, he held on thanks to a swing from LAB of 9.7%, The national swing was 5% which is a good indication…

Read More Read More

CON MP, Douglas Carswell, defects to UKIP AND is resigning to fight by-election

CON MP, Douglas Carswell, defects to UKIP AND is resigning to fight by-election

Comments 0 Comment

MP for Clacton Douglas Carswell has announced he is defecting from the Conservatives to #Ukip — Sky News Newsdesk (@SkyNewsBreak) August 28, 2014 The results from @DouglasCarswell Clacton at GE2010. Can he hold that for UKIP pic.twitter.com/5MVJA1CnbS — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 28, 2014 At GE2010 Carswell enjoyed a swing of LAB to CON of 9.7% – which was one of the highest in UK. Suggests a big personal vote. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 28, 2014 CLACTON MP CARSWELL…

Read More Read More

The wait for another full IndyRef poll goes on – there’s not been one for nearly a fortnight

The wait for another full IndyRef poll goes on – there’s not been one for nearly a fortnight

Comments 0 Comment

Fieldwork for the last published full #IndyRef poll was completed 13 days ago. See Wiki list pic.twitter.com/A0bvLYzzdi — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 28, 2014 Why are there so few Scottish polls? Over the past few days I’ve been repeatedly asked when the next full IndyRef poll will be published and unfortunately I have no idea. The last full poll was by YouGov when fieldwork finished on August 15th – that’s 13 days ago. In the same period we have had…

Read More Read More

UKIP looks to the seaside for that elusive first past the post Westminster breakthough

UKIP looks to the seaside for that elusive first past the post Westminster breakthough

Comments 0 Comment

CON-held seats are the primary focus Whenever kippers talk about their progress in 2014 they point first to their success in the May 22nd Euros. Coming top of the poll was a major breakthrough, helped by the unique closed regional list voting system. In the first past the post elections held on the same day it was a different story – dropping 6 points on national equivalent vote share on their 2013 performance and securing 3.8% of the seats. In…

Read More Read More

Take the Ladbrokes 10-11 IndyRef NO victory with turnout under 80% bet

Take the Ladbrokes 10-11 IndyRef NO victory with turnout under 80% bet

Comments 0 Comment

Interesting Ladbrokes http://t.co/tRoY887SzF new #IndyRef betting markets pic.twitter.com/ligF4ObYbk — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 26, 2014 The best value punt, surely, for those who think independence will be defeated One of the problems for those wanting to bet on NO in the September 18th Scottish Independence referendum is that prices are so poor. About the best you can get is 1/6 which means that to make a profit of £50 you have to risk £300. A far better wager has just…

Read More Read More

Away from the IndyRef – today’s Populus poll sees UKIP up 4% to a record high for the firm

Away from the IndyRef – today’s Populus poll sees UKIP up 4% to a record high for the firm

Comments 0 Comment

This follows an increase in the UKIP share in the ComRes online poll for IoS/S Mirror – published at the weekend and the last YouGov poll have Farage’s party up from its average for the month of about 12% to 14%. We need to see more polls, of course, but the theory was that UKIP would fade after the May Euros and headed for GE2015. Well these numbers suggest that that is not happening. Mike Smithson 2004-2014: The view from…

Read More Read More

Salmond’s ICM victory in the 2nd IndyRef debate triggers a 2.5% move to YES on Betfair

Salmond’s ICM victory in the 2nd IndyRef debate triggers a 2.5% move to YES on Betfair

Comments 0 Comment

But did punters misinterpret the ICM voting data? Three weeks ago during the first Salmond-Darling TV encounter the first indications that NO was having the best of it came on the Betfair betting exchange where full data on trading is made available instantly and where you are able to track it. In the two hours of the STV hosted confrontation a lot of money was traded and YES moved sharply backwards from the 22% chance position it had reached in…

Read More Read More