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After the rumours that a YES lead poll is about to be published Ladbrokes open market on the next Panelbase findings

After the rumours that a YES lead poll is about to be published Ladbrokes open market on the next Panelbase findings

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CORRECTION Ladbrokes odds on next Panelbase IndyRef poll YES 3/1 NO 2/5 TIE 5/1 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 4, 2014 This might be a good way to flush out the data. If the odds change sharply or Ladbrokes suspend market then we’ll know something’s happening. Expecting the next "face-to-face" TNS-BMRB Indy Ref poll in the middle of next week. The firm has tended to have bigger NO figures. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 4, 2014 I’ve got a feeling that TNS might do…

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Two weeks to go in Scotland and NO edges up on the exchanges to a 77% chance

Two weeks to go in Scotland and NO edges up on the exchanges to a 77% chance

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Daily Record front page pic.twitter.com/BaRpvXdSRd — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 3, 2014 The YES YouGov bounce starts to recede The widely reported news at the start of the week of the dramatic polling changes from YouGov in Scotland led inevitably to the money on the £3m Betfair markets to edge more towards YES. At one stage YES touched being a 26.5% chance but that has now started to recede with NO moving back upwards. The situation is nothing like as…

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GE2015 polling should be put on one side so the focus for next next 2 weeks can be Scotland

GE2015 polling should be put on one side so the focus for next next 2 weeks can be Scotland

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In the last 18 days there've been just 2 IndyRef polls. Scotland decides 2 wks tomorrow. Extraordinary/annoying pic.twitter.com/z51NG5jnm2 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 3, 2014 @MSmithsonPB As many polls of Clacton by-elec in last week as of indy ref in last 3 weeks. Priorities? — Rob Ford (England) (@robfordmancs) September 3, 2014 There’s no excuse for the lack of IndyRef polling A fortnight tomorrow a massive election is taking place north of the border. The turnout is expected to be…

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Unless Salmond can find a way of turning the oldies in the remaining 14 days independence will be lost

Unless Salmond can find a way of turning the oldies in the remaining 14 days independence will be lost

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Scotland’s battle is generational and the oldies will prevail We all know that the older you are the more likely it is that you’ll be on the electoral register and the greater the chance it is that you’ll actually vote. In the chart above, based on data from the latest Survation IndyRef poll, I’ve tried to show how much NO is dependent on the oldies. The chart looks at the percentage of the overall NO vote that is coming from…

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After a day dominated by two big polls IndyRef NO is the biggest betting loser

After a day dominated by two big polls IndyRef NO is the biggest betting loser

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Inevitably with only 15 days left to go before Scotland decides on partition there’s been a lot of betting activity on the referendum outcome with the money going on YES. YouGov’s 6% NO lead, down from 18% in July, has given partition campaigners real hope that what they’ve been campaigning for decades might just conceivably happen. This poll, and the way it has been highlighted by the media, has all the making of a narrative changer even though all it…

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If the latest YouGov IndyRef poll is right then the outcome could be very close indeed

If the latest YouGov IndyRef poll is right then the outcome could be very close indeed

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YouGov IndyRef poll for the Times finds NO leads down to just 6%. It was 18% in July. %age of LAB voters supporting YES up from 13% to 30 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 1, 2014 YouGov/Times IndyRef poll finds undecided voters splitting to YES by 2-1. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 1, 2014 YouGov's Peter Kellner says "Salmond is within touching distance of victory"; http://t.co/eVCF04rult — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 1, 2014 Via @benrileysmith How YouGov IndyRef polls have…

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Tory hopes of benefitting from a first time incumbency bonus depend on first time incumbents standing again

Tory hopes of benefitting from a first time incumbency bonus depend on first time incumbents standing again

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Dudley South becomes the 8th CON seat where the party won't benefit from the 1st time incumbency bonus pic.twitter.com/IsGnBTU9w4 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 1, 2014 The more that follow Kelly route the bigger the task at GE2015 Dudley South was won by the Tories at GE2010 with a majority of 10.1% and is LAB target number 75. On current national polling it is one of a critical batch of seats that Labour needs to gain in order to secure…

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