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A key factor at GE2015: Will UKIP be deemed a “major party”?

A key factor at GE2015: Will UKIP be deemed a “major party”?

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Corporeal looks at the BBC’s Clacton decision One of the unresolved questions surrounding the next general election is how the media will treat UKIP, will they be pushed into the background as coverage hones in on the Lib Dems, (and especially) Labour, and the Conservatives or will they get brought into the mainstream debate and get a share of the precious oxygen of publicity. Most interesting, and probably most symbolic of all is whether they will get a look in…

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NO now back above a 70% chance on Betfair’s IndyRef market

NO now back above a 70% chance on Betfair’s IndyRef market

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YES needs more polls like YouGov As can be expected the weekend polls have triggered off a lot of betting activity. The market we can monitor best is the Betfair exchange where the price of the last trade is being constantly updated. The YES price on the Betfair exchange did touch 33%. It has now slipped aback a touch. Unlike many political markets there are a lot of punters on either side ready to risk their cash and the total…

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Remember it was the YouGov polling panel that most exaggerated the last “political earthquake” – the Cleggasm in April 2010

Remember it was the YouGov polling panel that most exaggerated the last “political earthquake” – the Cleggasm in April 2010

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Why I am waiting for TNS-BMRB The big problem we have with last night’s IndyRef polling sensation from YouGov is that so far it has not been supported by other firms. Panelbase, which traditionally has shown YES in its most favourable position came out with no change from from its mid-August IndyRef poll – a 4% lead. Given that most of the latest Panelbase fieldwork coincided with YouGov’s latest YES lead poll then it is indeed surprising that it has…

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Rupert Murdoch hints that tonight’s YouGov IndyRef poll has NO and YES even closer

Rupert Murdoch hints that tonight’s YouGov IndyRef poll has NO and YES even closer

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London Times will shock Britain and more with reliable new poll on Scottish independence. If right on 18 th vote everything up for grabs — Rupert Murdoch (@rupertmurdoch) September 6, 2014 Scottish independence means huge black eye for whole political establishment, especially Cameron and Milliband. — Rupert Murdoch (@rupertmurdoch) September 6, 2014 Scottish poll reflects world-wide disillusion with political leaders and old establishments leaving openings for libertarians and far left. — Rupert Murdoch (@rupertmurdoch) September 6, 2014

Local By-Election Results : September 4th 2014

Local By-Election Results : September 4th 2014

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Carfax on Oxford City (Lab Defence) Result: Labour 168 (44% +12%), Liberal Democrats 101 (27% +4%), Greens 63 (17% -9%), Conservatives 24 (6% -12%), United Kingdom Independence Party 24 (6%) Labour HOLD with a majority of 67 (17%) on a swing of 4% from Liberal Democrat to Labour Folkestone, Harvey Central on Shepway (Con Defence) Result: United Kingdom Independence Party 287 (28%), Conservative 224 (22%), Liberal Democrats 198 (19%), Labour 196 (19%) United Kingdom Independence Party GAIN from Conservative with…

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As the big day gets closer Sporting Index returns to political spread betting

As the big day gets closer Sporting Index returns to political spread betting

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Not too long after the 2012 White House race Sporting Index disappeared from the political betting scene. This was to be much regretted. I’m a huge spread betting fan and just love the way that political futures can be traded like stocks and shares. Well SPIN has found the Scottish Referendum irresistible. It has become a massive, in political betting terms, market and across the board the bookies are reporting high levels of activity. There are two SPIN spread markets:-…

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Boris, the betting favourite for next CON leader and 2nd favourite for next PM is in danger of falling at the first fence

Boris, the betting favourite for next CON leader and 2nd favourite for next PM is in danger of falling at the first fence

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The Sun: Boris faces serious challenge in his effort to become GE2015 candidate in Uxbridge http://t.co/fvhdNsOts9 pic.twitter.com/vs1TzYauLw — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 4, 2014 Boris’s selection for Uxbridge is not a foregone conclusion We all know that the main impediment to Boris being Cameron’s successor is that he’s not an MP. That appeared to have been resolved a few weeks ago when he made it clear that he would seek to return to the Commons at GE2015. Suddenly the London…

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Harry Hayfield’s Local By-Election Preview : September 4th 2014

Harry Hayfield’s Local By-Election Preview : September 4th 2014

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Carfax on Oxford City (Lab Defence) Result of last election to council (2014): Labour 33, Liberal Democrats 8, Green 6, Independent 1 (Labour majority of 18) Result of last election in ward (2012): Labour 288 (32%), Green 235 (26%), Liberal Democrat 207 (23%), Conservative 159 (18%) Candidates duly nominated: Maryam Ahmed (Con), Kenrick Bird (UKIP), Tony Brett (Lib Dem), Alex Hollingsworth (Lab), Richard Scrase (Green) The gleaming spires of Oxford has hidden a battle between the Liberal Democrats and the…

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