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As the big day gets closer Sporting Index returns to political spread betting

As the big day gets closer Sporting Index returns to political spread betting

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Not too long after the 2012 White House race Sporting Index disappeared from the political betting scene. This was to be much regretted. I’m a huge spread betting fan and just love the way that political futures can be traded like stocks and shares. Well SPIN has found the Scottish Referendum irresistible. It has become a massive, in political betting terms, market and across the board the bookies are reporting high levels of activity. There are two SPIN spread markets:-…

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Boris, the betting favourite for next CON leader and 2nd favourite for next PM is in danger of falling at the first fence

Boris, the betting favourite for next CON leader and 2nd favourite for next PM is in danger of falling at the first fence

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The Sun: Boris faces serious challenge in his effort to become GE2015 candidate in Uxbridge http://t.co/fvhdNsOts9 pic.twitter.com/vs1TzYauLw — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 4, 2014 Boris’s selection for Uxbridge is not a foregone conclusion We all know that the main impediment to Boris being Cameron’s successor is that he’s not an MP. That appeared to have been resolved a few weeks ago when he made it clear that he would seek to return to the Commons at GE2015. Suddenly the London…

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Harry Hayfield’s Local By-Election Preview : September 4th 2014

Harry Hayfield’s Local By-Election Preview : September 4th 2014

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Carfax on Oxford City (Lab Defence) Result of last election to council (2014): Labour 33, Liberal Democrats 8, Green 6, Independent 1 (Labour majority of 18) Result of last election in ward (2012): Labour 288 (32%), Green 235 (26%), Liberal Democrat 207 (23%), Conservative 159 (18%) Candidates duly nominated: Maryam Ahmed (Con), Kenrick Bird (UKIP), Tony Brett (Lib Dem), Alex Hollingsworth (Lab), Richard Scrase (Green) The gleaming spires of Oxford has hidden a battle between the Liberal Democrats and the…

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After the rumours that a YES lead poll is about to be published Ladbrokes open market on the next Panelbase findings

After the rumours that a YES lead poll is about to be published Ladbrokes open market on the next Panelbase findings

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CORRECTION Ladbrokes odds on next Panelbase IndyRef poll YES 3/1 NO 2/5 TIE 5/1 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 4, 2014 This might be a good way to flush out the data. If the odds change sharply or Ladbrokes suspend market then we’ll know something’s happening. Expecting the next "face-to-face" TNS-BMRB Indy Ref poll in the middle of next week. The firm has tended to have bigger NO figures. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 4, 2014 I’ve got a feeling that TNS might do…

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Two weeks to go in Scotland and NO edges up on the exchanges to a 77% chance

Two weeks to go in Scotland and NO edges up on the exchanges to a 77% chance

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Daily Record front page pic.twitter.com/BaRpvXdSRd — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 3, 2014 The YES YouGov bounce starts to recede The widely reported news at the start of the week of the dramatic polling changes from YouGov in Scotland led inevitably to the money on the £3m Betfair markets to edge more towards YES. At one stage YES touched being a 26.5% chance but that has now started to recede with NO moving back upwards. The situation is nothing like as…

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GE2015 polling should be put on one side so the focus for next next 2 weeks can be Scotland

GE2015 polling should be put on one side so the focus for next next 2 weeks can be Scotland

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In the last 18 days there've been just 2 IndyRef polls. Scotland decides 2 wks tomorrow. Extraordinary/annoying pic.twitter.com/z51NG5jnm2 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 3, 2014 @MSmithsonPB As many polls of Clacton by-elec in last week as of indy ref in last 3 weeks. Priorities? — Rob Ford (England) (@robfordmancs) September 3, 2014 There’s no excuse for the lack of IndyRef polling A fortnight tomorrow a massive election is taking place north of the border. The turnout is expected to be…

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Unless Salmond can find a way of turning the oldies in the remaining 14 days independence will be lost

Unless Salmond can find a way of turning the oldies in the remaining 14 days independence will be lost

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Scotland’s battle is generational and the oldies will prevail We all know that the older you are the more likely it is that you’ll be on the electoral register and the greater the chance it is that you’ll actually vote. In the chart above, based on data from the latest Survation IndyRef poll, I’ve tried to show how much NO is dependent on the oldies. The chart looks at the percentage of the overall NO vote that is coming from…

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After a day dominated by two big polls IndyRef NO is the biggest betting loser

After a day dominated by two big polls IndyRef NO is the biggest betting loser

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Inevitably with only 15 days left to go before Scotland decides on partition there’s been a lot of betting activity on the referendum outcome with the money going on YES. YouGov’s 6% NO lead, down from 18% in July, has given partition campaigners real hope that what they’ve been campaigning for decades might just conceivably happen. This poll, and the way it has been highlighted by the media, has all the making of a narrative changer even though all it…

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