politicalbetting.com

It’s a truism of pop history that wealthy “civilised” states are always at a disadvantage, when fighting against poorer but tougher adversaries, whether those enemies are steppe horsemen, desert tribes, guerillas, or religious fanatics.  In more modern times, the weakness of democratic nations (attempting as they do, to adhere to the Law of Armed Conflict, and being wary of heavy casualties), is contrasted the strength of dictatorships (who don’t need to worry about such things). There is a belief that…

Read More Read More

UK finances are in a mess. Traditionally, the debate has been between the right, which favours a small-state but low-tax model like the US, and the left, which favours a Scandi-style high-tax but high level of services model. It feels like we are falling between 2 stools with high taxes and poor public services. Some numbers from the ONS (September 2025): All chancellors have their own special rules to pretend they have the finances under control. Reeves has clearly lost…

Read More Read More

Since the 2024 general election the popularity of the Labour government has not followed the path generally expected of one elected with a landslide majority, plumbing depths only previously reached by the Truss government. The reaction to this in some quarters has been a mixture of bewilderment, disbelief and complacency. The polling is a mirage created by BBC bias in favour of Farage. The government always becomes unpopular and then recovers as the general election approaches. The voters have no…

Read More Read More

I think it’s fair to say that Nigel Farage is not overly popular with the denizens of PB. He also looks well set to become Prime Minister with Reform currently odds on to win most seats at the next election. What can stop the Farage juggernaut? I would argue 5 potential things: This article will focus on tactical voting My golden rule I would humbly suggest the following rule of tactical voting: Some left-wing voters will vote tactically for another…

Read More Read More

Sunday 26th October has one of the more interesting elections of the year, the Argentinian Mid-term Chamber of Deputies and Senate Elections. This is significant for Non-Argentinians in that as well as President Trump several UK Politicians, most notably Badenoch and Farage, are open admirers of President Milei’s programme of massive spending cuts to revive the economy. This is the first national electoral test for Milei since his programme was implemented. Argentina has a democratic system that in some ways…

Read More Read More

Recall the GLP1 obesity drugs which are generating tens of billions every year ?Meet the British scientists who was one of those who first elucidated the biochemistry underlying them. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stephen_R._Bloom…Bloom played a seminal role in establishing the biology and pathophysiology of the intrinsic endocrine system of the gastrointestinal tract, an area which he pioneered and which is now a major focus of basic and applied laboratories worldwide. Through the identification of clinical syndromes associated with overproduction of these hormones and…

Read More Read More

Here are just two which don’t convince me. Kemi Badenoch vows to repeal Climate Change Act – Tory leader says she would replace it with ‘cheap energy’ strategy, ending decades-long consensus on climate. Living Standards were poor in the 50’s 60’s and 70’s UK, and it wasn’t the Welfare State that eventually raised them, but the North Sea. There must be huge temptation to, as Climate Change denier Trump puts it, drill baby drill, gas, oil, coal – to boost…

Read More Read More

Last week YouGov released the latest iteration of their MRP (Multi-level Regression and Post-stratification) survey. For anyone not aware, this is a survey combining data from 13,000 voters and demographic data to predict all the seats in Great Britain (except for the Speaker’s seat of Chorley). YouGov have had splendid success with their MRP and correctly called 92% of seats at the 2024 election (also helping my betting returns). That said, we should point out a couple of caveats as…

Read More Read More