With just 5 MPs elected in 2024, it’s impossible for Reform to win the next election. So we are told. We can list multiple events which were politically impossible which then happened anyway. In today’s politics, the impossible is the future possible. Reform UK have transformed themselves – from UKIP to the Brexit Party to Reform UK Ltd, and now to a non-profit owned by its growing number of members. It is led by a Teflon-coated populist who so many…
We all remember OGH’s 50/1 bet on Obama. Well, I’ve got another for you! 50/1 on Mark Carney to be next leader of the Liberal Party of Canada. Oh… sorry, no, the bookies are offering 1/50 on Carney. Bet £50 and win £1 if he is elected. Is he really such a foregone conclusion? I’ve not seen any polling of party members, but the last two polls of Liberal voters had him 54pp and 40pp up against Chrystia Freeland, his…
For those curious about the PB Prediction Competition, the full list of entries can be found in this spreadsheet. PB Prediction Competition 2025 – Entries Most of the questions won’t be settled until the end of the year, although we do have one which should be answered very soon: Question 7. Number of seats won by the AfD in the 2025 German Federal Election. For Question 7. we have a low entry of 88 AfD seats, a high of 200,…
It is only a little over a week since the inauguration of Donald Trump as 47th President of the USA. He has had a busy time of it with a flurry of Executive Orders on a wide range of issues, in line with his agenda. He certainly wasted little time, and this instant impact is a sharp contrast to the lethargic start of the Starmer government in Blighty. Perhaps a 3 month transition has its merits. Historically Executive orders were…
It’s time to get your entries in for the 2025 PB Predictions Competition if you haven’t already. All entries must be in by midnight tonight on Friday 31st January! To enter you simply need to post your answers to the following 14 questions before the end of January 2025, to this or whichever thread is currently open. If you can put the word ‘competition’ in your post it will help me collate entries. Alternatively you can PM me your entries…
Misinformation online has become commonplace. It has fuelled riots and disorder and maybe propelled a few people into office. But is misinformation just a random process, or is it driven by particular actors? Is it seen on both the left and right of politics? Petter Törnberg and Juliana Chueri sought to answer this in a research paper just published in The International Journal of Press/Politics. They analysed 32 million tweets from parliamentarians in 26 different countries (including the UK, US, Ireland, France,…
It’s time to get your entries in for the 2025 PB Predictions Competition if you haven’t already. All entries must be in by midnight on Friday 31st January! To enter you simply need to post your answers to the following 14 questions before the end of January 2025, to this or whichever thread is currently open. If you can put the word ‘competition’ in your post it will help me collate entries. Alternatively you can PM me your entries (but…
Let me start this article with a question. What is this building in the picture above’s age? The answer depends on your perspective. The building is called The House of the Blackheads and is in Riga, Latvia. It was originally built in 1334 as a warehouse, while Riga was part of the Hanseatic League. During WW2, Latvia was first invaded by the Soviets after the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact, then by the Germans and finally by the Soviets again. This led to…