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It seems difficult to believe that only a week ago we were still awaiting the European Parliamentary election results. Indeed, there’s been so much going on that it’s worth revisiting one of the more important announcements that could have profound betting implications. Gordon Brown’s statement to parliament last Wednesday floated various ideas under the broad headline of ‘democratic renewal’, amongst which was electoral reform, on which the government has promised “consultation”. It ought to be politically difficult for Labour to…

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ICM / News of the World Poll Suggests Cabinet Clear-out An ICM poll reported in the News of the World and being prominently reported on Sky News suggests that seven cabinet ministers would lose their seats in a general election. The poll was carried out last Wednesday – before the local election results, reshuffle and ministerial resignations – in what the paper describes as “the 18 constituencies represented by main Cabinet Ministers”.  It’s not clear what this means: there are…

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Might the ex-Home Secretary be Labour’s Stalking Elephant? Today’s big news really ought to be the European Parliament election results this evening, though given the way the last few days have gone, there’s no guarantee that something even more dramatic won’t scoop it. Still, as they won’t come out until this evening, let’s have another look at the Labour leadership situation. Once again, the Sunday newspapers are dreadful for Gordon Brown, with stories of (old) e-mails sent by Peter Mandelson…

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Will the election for Speaker prevent a Leadership contest? Michael Martin. Remember him? He used to be Speaker of the House of Commons until he resigned last week. Except of course he didn’t: he’s still there, forgotten but not gone. All he announced was that he would be resigning on June 21. There are some perfectly good reasons for having a delay of four weeks. For one thing, it allows members the opportunity to discuss potential candidates and to give…

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We had all sorts of problems uploading the chart so apologies that it’s not the easiest to read. The purple / pink lines are the shares at General Elections. The yellow / peach lines are the shares at European elections.The pink and yellow lines are the shares for all parties outside the Big Three (Con, Lab, LD) The purple and peach lines are the shares for all parties outside the Big Two (Con, Lab). Will the Expenses Scandal produce a…

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Is now the perfect time to be an anti-establishment politician? As the expenses row moves into Day 3, Saturday’s polls provided some answers to the question as to its impact on the political parties, as opposed to the individuals who’ve been in the spotlight. They also raised others. The media narratives easiest to follow are those which focus on a single person or event: a parliamentary vote, an election, an individual’s misconduct or the like. One of the problems of…

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