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Author: David Herdson

Do Blair’s wars still cast a shadow over Brown?

Do Blair’s wars still cast a shadow over Brown?

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  At what point does Afghanistan stop being worth it? Afghanistan has always been the worthwhile war, the one for which there was a genuine casus belli and the fighting of which was supposed to make Britain and the world safer. However, the deaths of seven more British soldiers in there this week raises the questions of just what is being achieved and at what cost. It’s well over seven years since the Taliban were deposed from Afghanistan’s government –…

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2012 Prospects: The Barracuda

2012 Prospects: The Barracuda

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A Guest Article from Socrates There has been much talk over Sarah Palin’s shock announcement that she is resigning from her post as Governor of Alaska before the end of the first term. The primary questions in much of the coverage have been “What the hell is she up to?” and “Why on Earth does this help her?” I am convinced the answers are quite straight forward: Sarah Palin has decided to run for the 2012 Republican nomination for the…

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Will this PB post bring a smile back to Gordon’s face?

Will this PB post bring a smile back to Gordon’s face?

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Has he the power to defer the election until 2013? While I was researching the deadline for nominations for the Norwich by-election (4pm today), I found a fascinating research paper from the House of Commons – as reliable a source as could be wished for. It details the timetables for elections to various parliaments, assemblies and councils within the UK as well as giving detail on background and procedure – and contains an amazing loophole relating to the deadline by…

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Has Norwich North become the forgotten by-election?

Has Norwich North become the forgotten by-election?

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Is it really less interesting than mange tout? In little more than a fortnight, the voters in Norwich North will go to the polls to (probably – see below) elect a successor to Ian Gibson, the Labour MP who resigned following his effective de-selection by Labour. The first postal ballots will be going out in a matter of days. Yet despite the prospect of a direct loss from Labour to the Conservatives, which would be only the second such Tory…

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What’s Sarah Palin up to?

What’s Sarah Palin up to?

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Is her resignation a masterstroke or a blunder? It could be the start of the 2012 presidential election campaign or it could be the end of that of 2008.  Former Republican Vice-presidential candidate Sarah Palin’s decision to resign as Governor of Alaska later this month has raised a lot of questions but answered few. In her announcement, in which she rambled and at times rivalled John Prescott’s ability to string non-sequiturs together, she gave few reasons other than the pressures…

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Do bald guys always lose?

Do bald guys always lose?

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Are electorates follically prejudiced? There are all sorts of patterns that exist in politics. Some are entirely coincidental, such as every US president elected in a year ending in zero dying in office from 1840 to 1960 (and Reagan – elected in 1980 – was shot but survived); others have a relatively clear mathematical and logical link, such as the relationship between the vote share of a party and the seats it’s likely to win. Then there are others that…

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Does Brown have too many deputies?

Does Brown have too many deputies?

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Can he cope with Harriet, Mandy and Ed at the same time? Just as every Prime Minister needs a Willie, as Margaret Thatcher famously noted, so the present incumbent believes he needs Balls. She was right; he may not be. While Balls isn’t Brown’s deputy, he is almost certainly his closest political confidante within the cabinet, his position unassailable and his views taken very seriously by Brown. Alongside him, Peter Mandelson having returned to government and risen to the lofty…

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But what if he’s right?

But what if he’s right?

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Could he have the winning formula after all? The largely settled view of commentators and punters alike is that Labour will lose the next general election. No pundit has predicted that Labour (still less Brown) will be running government after polling day for some time, and the betting markets make the Conservatives heavily odds-on to win an outright majority, never mind most seats. Labour’s implied percentage chances of keeping a majority are stuck in single figures. However, a slim chance…

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