Is this the best value odds-on bet? Odds-on betting isn‘t always particularly attractive, especially when the bet lasts over several months. A lot can happen in the meantime to upset expectations, it ties up a lot in comparison to the anticipated return and even if it does come in, there’s no great sense of elation, as when picking a long-odds winner – and of course, nothing like the returns either. Even so, that’s not to say there isn’t any value…
Why won’t the pre-1997 polls comparison die? Michael Thrasher gave an interview for Sky News yesterday afternoon in which he built upon the article written for their website, inferring that the election is heading towards a hung parliament. In it, he made various claims and inferences that really shouldn’t be allowed to stand and which I find quite astonishing from such a senior expert in the subject. To summarise: He claimed that the Tories are struggling to break through 40%. In fact,…
Are local parties threatening Cameron’s remodelling? In South West Norfolk, the selected Tory candidate faces deselection, the stated reason being the non-disclosure of an affair from some years back; in Bromsgrove, the sitting Tory MP has changed her mind about standing down at the election and now wishes to contest the seat. Apart from both being political fallout from the Expenses Scandal, the two stories could damage the Tory party, especially when taken together, and both concern events around local…
 David Herdson assesses some of the options? Nearly eight years after the Laeken Summit kickstarted the process, there’s a good chance that the final hurdles to ratification of the Lisbon Treaty could be overcome next week, leading to the treaty coming into force on December 1. In Britain, that will throw the spotlight onto the Tories, whose policy on Lisbon will expire with the completion of the ratification process. The current policy of a referendum is one which is…
Who’s got this right? Herdson or Peter the Punter Earlier this week, I had an e-mail exchange with Peter the Punter following a bet we made a week last Monday as to whether Gordon Brown would go within the week, where we both set out our thoughts on Brown’s chances of survival through to next May. The first e-mail is from me in response to a question that Peter asked – whether Labour would sleepwalk to a sub-200 seat total,…
How far will Sarah be pushed into the campaign? Politicians with public relations difficulties have a tendency to play the family card and Gordon Brown has proven no exception to that rule. From her first notable ‘solo’ appearance in the Glenrothes by-election to her warm-up act at two party conferences, Sarah Brown’s profile in party activities has increased while her husband’s ratings have languished. That raises the questions of what role she’ll play when the election’s called and what impact…
Expenses, Brown under pressure.  It’s as if the Summer never happened. So, the first PMQ’s of the new term and expenses is dominating the political agenda again. Will either of the opposition party leaders choose to go on this? It would be a brave call to do so. In other news, unemployment continues to rise but at a slower rate than some anticipated. Could this be Brown’s favoured line to take the attack to his ‘do nothing’ Conservatives? Before any of the supplementary questions,…
Will they repeat their conference bounce come the election? Conference season 2009 is over and with YouGov having helpfully provided their tracker poll for Sky almost daily, now’s a good time to look back to see what lessons can be drawn for the coming months. The most obvious effect was that each of the parties gained a boost in their share during and immediately after their conference. That’s perhaps to be expected as each was able to control much of…