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Author: David Herdson

Has Clegg put Cameron on pole position?

Has Clegg put Cameron on pole position?

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What should we make of his “mandate” comment? It’s unusual for the Lib Dems to get drawn into discussions about possible election results and what they’d do in a hung parliament. There are no easy answers and all scenarios tend to lead the discussion towards Labour and the Conservatives rather than the Lib Dems. So Clegg’s comments yesterday on GMTV form a very interesting position. He said:If a party has got more support and has got a clearer mandate from…

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Will there be a pre-election Budget?

Will there be a pre-election Budget?

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Is there no date because they can’t agree the contents? Last year’s budget was delivered on 22 April, the latest ‘regular’ budget since they reverted to their traditional Spring slot. That date was announced on 12 February. More than three weeks beyond the equivalent date this year, there has been no announcement as to when the budget will be delivered. What’s going on? The timing of the budget is intimately connected to the timing of the General Election: as parliament…

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Will Salmond’s referendum change the Scottish debate?

Will Salmond’s referendum change the Scottish debate?

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Can the SNP reverse Labour’s fightback? With not particularly subtle timing, Alex Salmond launched on Thursday the Scottish government’s bill to put a referendum questions on independence and greater powers for the Scottish parliament – close to three years since taking office and within a few weeks of a UK general election campaign. The SNP sailed into government close to the crest of their support: in the election, they won 33% of the constituency vote and 31% of the regional…

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Could an early election still be on?

Could an early election still be on?

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And if so, are the odds worth it? After the abject failure of the Hoon-Hewitt plot, I commented that Brown would definitely lead Labour into the election and that the election would be on May 6. My reasoning was that the almost complete lack of support that was evident for Hoon and Hewitt’s position made Brown unassailable: it not only demonstrated Brown’s then current strength but would also so discourage any future plots from even getting that far. With Brown…

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Is the climate issue going to give Dave a headache?

Is the climate issue going to give Dave a headache?

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How’s the increasing scepticism going to play? One of David Cameron’s early acts in detoxifying the Conservative brand was the increased focus on the environment and combating climate change. That was in a different, pre-recession world and the legacy of those policy decisions could be about to cause the Tory leadership problems. The BBC-commissioned Populus poll reports a significant shift in public attitudes on climate change, with the proportion who don’t think global warming is taking place having increased from…

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So what happens if it is a hung parliament?

So what happens if it is a hung parliament?

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Could Brown hang on even if he loses his majority? Scenario: 3pm on May 7th. The last few constituencies are declaring but the result has been known for some hours. For the first time in 36 years, no party has won an overall majority. It’s always been quite a strong possibility: if Labour lose more than about a couple of dozen seats they lose their majority but the Tories need to gain well over a hundred to win outright. That’s…

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But has Labour reached its ceiling?

But has Labour reached its ceiling?

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Is 30% (+MoE) the limit in the current climate? Two events in Spring 2009 gave minor parties a massive boost in the polls. One was the coverage and electoral opportunities afforded by the European elections, the other was the disillusionment with the Conservatives and Labour that resulted from the expenses scandal (the Lib Dems’ poll rating was largely unaffected). After polling around 10% throughout winter 2008-9 with all firms except Comres, who put them a couple of points higher, Others shot up…

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Are the Tories getting too much coverage?

Are the Tories getting too much coverage?

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Is the ‘policy a day’ crowding Labour out of the spotlight? If the purpose of a media campaign is to get noticed and get talked about, then the Cameron/NHS posters have been a remarkable success: from spoof versions going viral on the web to questions on Mock the Week to references by Gordon Brown in PMQ’s, the posters have gained attention way beyond most political campaigns. One effect of not just the Tory NHS poster campaign but also the proposals…

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