YouGov daily poll Apr 17 Apr 16 CONSERVATIVES 33% 33% LABOUR 30% 28% LIB DEMS 29% 30%  Labour back in second but just 4% between the Big Three Tonight’s YouGov poll has the Lib Dems dropping back behind Labour but their 29% share is still an extremely strong showing and reconfirms the trend from all pollsters since the debate on Thursday. That these figures would produce a hung parliament is unarguable. Quite what the shape of that parliament would be…
What about 50/1 to win most seats? This has been one of Nick Clegg’s better weeks in office. A generally acknowledged win in the first debate – held on an even footing with the other two party leaders, which itself was a bonus on the usual situation – was followed up by a lot of very favourable coverage and yesterday’s outstanding YouGov poll, placing the Lib Dems within a 2% swing of having the largest share. In sport, the phrase…
Populus – Times Apr 12 Apr 7 CONSERVATIVES 36% 39% LABOUR 33% 32% LIB DEMS 21% 21% LAB to CON swing from 2005 3% 5% A Populus poll for tomorrow’s Times has the Tory lead over Labour cut to just 3%, which would certainly be hung parliament territory if repeated at the election and could well see Labour as the largest party. Other figures of note in the article are that Lib Dem supporters would prefer a deal with Labour over…
Should you bet on him becoming Sir Anthony? In something of a novelty market from William Hill, they’re asking whether Blair will get a knighthood during 2010. As they put it, Former Prime Minister Tony Blair is campaigning for Labour again and as a result William Hill are offering 10/1 that he will be knighted this year. Is that worth taking? I don’t accept Hill’s thinking – I don’t believe for a moment Blair is campaigning because he thinks there…
Could it all be over by the Summer? The problem with party leadership markets is that the timescales are so uncertain. If Gordon Brown serves as long as Tony Blair did as Labour leader, he’ll be there for another ten years. Alternatively, Brown’s successor could be in place by the Summer holidays. With all the attention on the General Election, perhaps now might be a good time to look to a relatively forgotten market that could soon become very live….
YG daily poll – Sun Mar 31 Mar 30 CONSERVATIVES 38% 38% LABOUR 32% 31% LIB DEMS 19% 19% LAB to CON swing from 2005 4.5% 5%  Harris poll – Metro Mar 31 Mar 22 CONSERVATIVES 37% 35% LABOUR 27% 28% LIB DEMS 19% 17% LAB to CON swing from 2005 6.5% 5%  No clear winner in tonight’s polls Two polls are out tonight, the daily YouGov one for The Sun and one from Harris for Metro, report opposing movements…
How many will watch and what’ll be the impact? It’s almost certain that one of the highlights of the coming election will be the series of debates between the main party leaders. Working out how much the debates will impact on the election campaign is largely a judgement call but a crucial one. Britain has little experience of this sort of thing. The closest the country has is the weekly Prime Minister’s Questions but they are frequent, formulaic, limited in…
Will Cameron be the winner of the BA and rail actions? Most national strikes have a political dimension and all involving the transport sector do. They impact on millions of voters and how those individuals view the players could determine not just who ‘wins’ or ‘loses’ the strikes but who wins or loses the election too. The biggest short-term losers in a transport strike are invariably the public, so the blame game becomes all important. Even if aircraft keep flying,…