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Author: David Herdson

Will it be Wobbly April every year?

Will it be Wobbly April every year?

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How possible is coalition government with elections on? It all seemed so easy last May. Two parties having come together to agree a coalition document over little more than a weekend, leaders joking in the garden of Number Ten and ministers sitting happily around the cabinet table. It looks a different ball game now. Disagreements between members of the two coalition parties have been more frequent and more public in the last month than at any time so far this…

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Has the electoral bias to Labour now become history?

Has the electoral bias to Labour now become history?

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Can the red team no longer rely on “the system”? For the last twenty years, the Conservatives have needed a greater share of the vote than Labour in order to win an overall majority. That was the case for three main reasons: a higher turnout in safe Conservative seats as against safe Labour ones, a much greater willingness for Lib Dems to tactically support Labour to keep the Tories out than the reverse, and Labour seats being on average smaller…

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Is The Sport’s demise its most newsworthy event?

Is The Sport’s demise its most newsworthy event?

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Daily Telegraph What does it say about the future of the printed newspaper? To describe the Daily and Sunday Sport as newspapers would be stretching a point. By the editor’s own admission, they were about sport, women and humour, even if they did have Lembit Opik writing a weekly politics column. So news that the group has gone tits up will not reverberate through the media in the same way as the demise of a more serious title would. But…

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Will the OBR be Osborne’s Secret Weapon?

Will the OBR be Osborne’s Secret Weapon?

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Who does it make life harder for – government or opposition? It would be easy to see the admission made by George Osborne in this week’s Budget that the anticipated growth rate for 2011 had fallen and that the expected levels of borrowing had gone up as bad news for the government. And in the short term, it is. It means Labour have the opportunity to claim that the government’s policies aren’t working (whether or not they are isn’t the…

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Will Libya restore Dave’s self-confidence?

Will Libya restore Dave’s self-confidence?

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Does the Tory poll decline result from a lack of advocacy? One thing that struck me from PMQ’s this week was how much David Cameron skirted round defending the greater competition that the reforms to the NHS will bring, assuming that the bill goes through more or less as currently presented. It’s not that there wasn’t passion there – he was robust in his responses to Ed Miliband – but each time the Labour leader questioned him about provisions for…

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How well has the government picked its key 2011 battle?

How well has the government picked its key 2011 battle?

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Are the Hutton pensions reforms the right place to fight? The reforms to the public-sector pensions that John Hutton, the former Labour Secretary of State for Work and Pensions, proposed in his report for the government earlier this week have understandably dropped out of the news. They will, however, be back. Even without the need to reduce the deficit, public-sector pensions were becoming more and more expensive, given rising life expectancy. Hutton has given the government all the political cover…

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How does Dave deal with UKIP?

How does Dave deal with UKIP?

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How big a warning shot was Barnsley? One of the most striking aspects of the Barnsley Central result was the second place for UKIP. This was probably their best ever by-election result: it’s the first time they’ve finished as high as second and was their best-ever share of the poll, though their candidate in Norwich North in 2009 won over a thousand more votes on a higher turnout. In both by-elections this parliament, they’ve held their deposit. It would be…

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Is the old LD election machine broken beyond repair?

Is the old LD election machine broken beyond repair?

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If so, how does Clegg build a new one? The Barnsley Central by-election was not a resounding success for any of the main three parties. Labour regained most of the share they lost at the general election but still polled a smaller proportion than in 2005, the Conservatives lost half their share and were beaten by UKIP, and the Lib Dems lost their deposit, more than three-quarters of their share and finished sixth. That more than a quarter of the…

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