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Author: David Herdson

Miliband’s five hurdles

Miliband’s five hurdles

What can stop Labour’s cruise to victory? To say there’s been no movement in the opinion polls over the last two years would be untrue.  Most obviously, UKIP’s average share doubled between early 2012 and the time of last year’s local elections, pushing the Lib Dems into a regular fourth, which remains the case despite a slight drop off for the Purples.  There’s also been a small narrowing of the gap between Labour and the Conservatives, but at a glacial…

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Who’ll finish fourth?

Who’ll finish fourth?

David Herdson on the battle for the minor European election placings Fourth is, according to Olympic pundits, the cruellest finishing position.  I don’t buy it.  Who’d rather finish fifth or sixth than fourth, or, looking at it the other way, who enters a competition to finish third?  Higher is better, first is best and last is worst. Understandably, most of the coverage of the European elections has focussed on the front of the field: who’ll take first place, where Labour…

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Swing voters haven’t stopped swinging – they’re just doing it differently

Swing voters haven’t stopped swinging – they’re just doing it differently

The classic Con/Lab voter has gone the way of the Con/Lab system Once upon a time, most people voted at general elections and nearly everyone that did voted Conservative or Labour.  And thus the key swing vote was born: those persuadable voters in marginal constituencies.  Win them and you win the election. Then it became far more complicated.  The rise of the Liberals, the Scots and Welsh Nationalists and more recently a plethora of other parties – combined with a…

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The currency question just got harder for Yes this week

The currency question just got harder for Yes this week

What’s the point of independence if you have to give up your sovereignty? Two years ago, two-thirds of Scottish voters would have voted for independence if it made them £500 a year better off.  That support dropped to just 21% if they would be left £500 a year down.  We shouldn’t regard those figures as gospel – putting the emphasis so heavily on one factor in the question will probably exaggerate the effect in the results – but there’s no…

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It couldn’t happen, could it? PM Farage

It couldn’t happen, could it? PM Farage

Farage Number 10? pic.twitter.com/NF05OOYWVL — PolPics (@PolPics) January 25, 2014 David Herdson on a nightmare or a dream The toothy beaming smile said it all.  The new prime minister stood on the steps of Downing Street and waved to nobody in particular but it was what the assembled media wanted anyway.  They were as stunned at the result as everyone else.  True, the polls a few days before had been predicting it but no-one really believed them did they?  Polls…

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Shouldn’t our governments govern?

Shouldn’t our governments govern?

David Herdson’s Saturday Slant George Osborne turned lobbyist this week.  Despite the fact that he is, in theory, one of the most powerful members of the government, his advocacy of an above-inflation increase in the minimum wage carries virtually no weight.  Why?  Because he doesn’t set it – and nor, in effect, does anyone else in the government.  Rises are done on the recommendation of the Low Pay Commission and while ministers can overrule it, doing so defeats the purpose…

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The “Plebgate Aftermath”: A Sutton Coldfield by-election could now be nailed on

The “Plebgate Aftermath”: A Sutton Coldfield by-election could now be nailed on

http://t.co/Mjk8tWGtRK http://t.co/fvMSatzc3U — PolPics (@PolPics) January 12, 2014 Will Mitchell be resigning this year anyway? The guilty plea in the trial of the PC who falsely made up evidence about the Plebgate affair has been used by Andrew Mitchell’s friends as vindication of his position.  It’s not quite that – if he wasn’t there then the substance of what was said remains disputed – but it hasn’t done anything for the police case. Demands for Mitchell’s reinstatement to cabinet would…

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Osborne’s Gauntlet: How does Labour respond?

Osborne’s Gauntlet: How does Labour respond?

Has the Chancellor just set the terms of debate through to 2015? Popular memory recalls George Osborne’s 2012 Budget as the Omnishambles.  Ed Miliband’s description was a little unfair, but only a little: any political event where opponents gain traction out of three separate criticisms of it is a PR shambles, whatever its other merits. It’s also – wrongly – remembered as the defining moment of the parliament in polling terms, from which Labour benefitted from a step-change increase.  Actually,…

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