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Author: David Herdson

Trump remains the value bet for the Presidency

Trump remains the value bet for the Presidency

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It’s time to take the prospect of him winning outright seriously No-one has got rich betting against Donald Trump this election campaign and now is unlikely to be the time to start. He’s currently best-priced at 5/2 with Ladbrokes, which in a two-horse race implies a serious weakness on his part. In many ways, he is a seriously weak candidate. He’s never held any public office before, never mind elected public office. He has very little active support from within…

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David Herdson on tonight’s big European election

David Herdson on tonight’s big European election

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Who is on for douze points? Hello and welcome once again to this European extravaganza; this celebration of all that is best and brightest about this continent; this joyous coming together of nations near and far. Oh all right, who am I kidding? The big question of course is will Britain triumph for the first time since Terry Wogan was in short trousers – and I don’t mean the lederhosen he sported that time in … apparently I’m not allowed…

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Are we witnessing the death of Scottish Labour?

Are we witnessing the death of Scottish Labour?

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It’s not the falling that kills you; it’s the landing Bafflement and incomprehension are unlikely to be in short supply for Scottish Labour. Each time they hit a new low, the belief is that things can now only get better. With rare exceptions, the belief has continually been wrong. So again this week. For the fourth election in a row, Scottish Labour lost seats. The progression of their seat totals since the first election to Holyrood, in 1999, now reads:…

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The 2016 elections: curate’s eggs all round

The 2016 elections: curate’s eggs all round

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But Corbyn may well be safe until 2020 The British electorate rarely fail to surprise. It shouldn’t be possible to produce elections where all are losers and most are simultaneously winners and yet that’s precisely what happened. Taking the British results party by party (I’m excluding Northern Ireland, which is a different game and for which counting is still ongoing). Labour Sadiq won. That was the minimum requirement and was comfortably met. Labour now has the politician with the biggest…

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Today’s forgotten Westminster by-elections – Ogmore and Sheffield?

Today’s forgotten Westminster by-elections – Ogmore and Sheffield?

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Two heartland seats: two more Oldhams? There are two parliamentary by-elections tomorrow. Normally, this would be cause for a good deal of media interest: it’s rare for two or more by-elections to take place on the same day (only the tenth occasion since 1997). However, the sheer quantity of other contests occurring has relegated what ought to be routine holds for Labour in Ogmore and in Sheffield Brightside & Hillsborough so far down the pecking order as to be near-invisible….

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Livingstone: symptom of a deeper problem

Livingstone: symptom of a deeper problem

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Confronting the ex-mayor means confronting what it means to be Labour You know you have a PR problem when your party’s second most successful politician this century* is publicly debating at what point in the 1930s Hitler lost the plot. Labour’s problem runs a great deal deeper than bad publicity though. To be clear, Labour is unlikely to be the only party with members, activists or elected representatives who’ve said or written something stupid or worse but it is likely…

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David Herdson say pursuing reform in the EU isn’t a pipe-dream

David Herdson say pursuing reform in the EU isn’t a pipe-dream

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The question is whether Brexit is needed to kick-start it Remember the government’s EU renegotiation? It was a big deal back in February when it was agreed after a marathon European Council summit and has been little heard of since. True, the five points do briefly appear in the government’s referendum leaflet but hardly any of the campaigning for or against membership has bothered to reference them. They are now essentially an irrelevance. To the extent that they are brought…

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Time to bet against the Donald

Time to bet against the Donald

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Trump’s amateur approach is costing him the election Back in October, I tipped Ted Cruz for the Republican nomination as a trading bet. As always with such bets, the trick is trading out at the right time. So with Cruz now at less than 2/1 across the board, when is that time? The simple answer is ‘not yet’. In a normal year, a candidate in Trump’s position would have the nomination near-enough sown up. Although he’ll probably fall short of…

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