Would the Tories fare better with a change at the top?

The problem for Tory MPs is that these numbers have a great impact on their survival chances. Anything that suggests the leadership is a big negative is of immediate interest to those MPs worried about whether they will still be there after the election.

These come as party conference season gets under way and the big story with the Tories is going to be on the leadership.

My own view is that Sunak is increasingly a big negative for all in his party who want to be MPs after the election. I would not rule out a move against him next month.

Mike Smithson