The polls still look gloomy for Rishi
What are the chances of a recovery?
I always think it is important to look at the polls as a block rather than just highlighting single surveys. The above from Wikipedia shows the general election voting polls so far this month.
As can be seen there are fewer LAB leads of 20% or more but we have yet to see a margin down into single figures.
it is reckoned that for a majority LAB needs a margin of about 7% in the national vote share.
So it is possible to envisage things slipping a bit more especially as a very large proportion of 2019 Tory voters are still saying don’t know when asked how they will vote. They are not saying they have switched to LAB or the LDs.
I argued before that it is this group that should concern us when it comes to making predictions based on the current polls.
Whatever it is hard to see a general election outcome that doesn’t see Starmer being called to the Palace.