LAB gets closer to the SNP in Scotland
At the next election what happens in Scotland looks set to have a big impact on the overall outcome which is why I tend to take a lot of notice of Scotland-only polls which are relatively rare. As a rule you cannot really attach too much importance to Scottish sub-samples in standard GB polling
What we are seeing north of the border is the aftermath of the problems that the SNP has been having. Remember how at GE2019 the SNP took 56 of the 59 Scottish seats a move that most hurt LAB which at the previous election had won 41 of them. This followed the Scottish IndyRef.
Now I don’t see LAB getting the 41 seats of GE2010 but you can see totals of 30+ being achieved. Given that overall LAB needs to move from the 202 MPs of GE2019 to 326 in order to secure a majority polling like this from YouGov is very important.
I still think that an overall LAB majority is a very big ask but the polls are looking positive for Starmer and his team.
The poll also suggest that the Tories look set to loose a large number of the 13 Scottish seat they got at GE2019