The chart shows the changes in the WH2024 betting and as can be seen the money has been going on Trump following the latest developments with his various criminal cases.

It is certainly at this stage difficult to see anything other than the WH2020 nominees being the same for next year.

My one big caveat is that all can change very rapidly when the primaries start. At the moment the polling is really all about name recognition and it is possible for someone to emerge in Iowa or New Hampshire who hasn’t been getting much national attention.

Whatever this will be by far the biggest political betting market of 2024 even if the UK general election takes place during the year.

Mike Smithson