We are getting a lot of reports at the moment about sitting Tory MPs announcing that they won’t be seeking re-election at the general election.

According to the House of Commons library the total is currently 44 with the total edging up all the time. The current total for all parties is 69.

Clearly, many MPs can read the way the polling has gone against the Tories compared with the party’s 12% GB lead at the last election. It doesn’t take long to figure out that even those with five-figure majorities might not be safe. Also there is the likely prospect of them going into opposition with all that entails.

A problem with a fair number of MPs not deciding to carry on is that the Tories are likely to lose the benefit of an incumbency bonus thus making the Tory challenge that bit harder.

Mike Smithson