One of the great things about the pollster Ipsos is that it has been carrying out political surveys in the UK since the mid-1970s. In the early days, it was known just as MORI but now it is part of the international polling group Ipsos.

It has an incredible polling library which enables it to produce comparisons like the one above on how various opposition leaders were doing at this stage into their term of office.

One thing the chart clearly highlights is that Starmer is not doing as well as Cameron which should be worrying for Labour. He is also behind Neil Kinnock who never won a general election. His predecessor Corbyn has clearly the worst record.

It’s reckoned that LAB needs a lead on the GB national vote of 7% for a majority. The Tories can do it with a 3% one.

I remain of the firm view that a LAB majority is nothing like as certain as the 54% chance that is currently rated on the betting markets.

Mike Smithson