The voting polls have continued to be miserable for the Tories and we are not seeing any real sign of a change since the Windsor agreement last week. You can just feel the frustration from the Tory camp at the moment that apparently nothing they can do actually shifts the vote share polling numbers.

In the leader ratings Sunak continues to trail Starmer and as to the best PM polling questions again the Tory leader finds himself in second place.

The polling detail is less bad for the Tories for although they have lost perhaps a fifth of their GE2019 vote to LAB the shift has not been any more than that. A significant proportion of those who voted Conservative at the 2019 general election continues to say don’t know when questioned by pollsters and do not give a party preference.

My guess is that when it comes to the crunch a very significant proportion of the current Tory don’t knows will actually vote for Sunak’s party.

Another factor is the impact of the new constituency boundaries and all the analysis suggests this benefits the Tories more than LAB adding perhaps 10 CON seats thus not helping the Labour challenge.

Even though they might not get a majority Labour look set to end up as election winners with Starmer being one who gets the call from the Palace.

Mike Smithson