Labour STILL not odds-on for an overall majority
The memory of GE1992 is still strong
Last night we had the worst poll for the Tories in decades and yet the betting markets have not reacted as can be seen in the chart showing movements in the general election overall majority betting market.
I must say that I expected to wake up this morning to see the betting numbers change a fair bit following the poll that has the Tories on just 19%. Sure the pollster involved is very new to this game and has yet to have an established reputation.
I still think an issue with current polls is the very significant proportion of those who voted for the Tories at the last election now saying don’t know or not having a party choice.
Those of us who were old enough to remember the 1992 General Election will recall how a LAB victory seemed all but certain but John Major’s Tories just managed to hold on. That was a terrible disaster from a polling perspective and led to significant changes in methodology. At the end of the day voters weren’t ready to switch to Kinnock.
I was a candidate in that election and well remember the reaction we got on the doorstep on the Tuesday before voting.