Immediately after the midterms last month former President Donald Trump made his formal announcement that he will be a candidate for 2024. As the betting chart shows he moved up shortly upwards but since then the story has all been downwards. This has been mostly down to the polling and the response to his “run again” plan.

Now it is just an 11% betting chance that he’ll get his old job back.

In just over a year will see the start of the 2024 primaries and the question will be whether Trump will still be in the race at that stage. I’m not convinced. I’m also not convinced either that 80 year old Biden is going to run again – although he got a boost from the midterms.

Mike Smithson