Hunt’s budget has almost no impact on the general election betting
Coming as it did less than two months after the last Tory budget it was no surprise that the reaction of the betting markets was far less than the “budget” of Kwarteng for the then Truss government in September. That hugely controversial event led to a massive collapse in Tory polling and a few weeks later the exit of Truss herself.
Although we have probably seen the end of LAB leads of 30%+ the Tories are still in a dire position and it is very difficult seeing them holding on to a majority at the next election.
In the post election betting Starmer is rated as a 70%+ chance to be PM.
My own view remains that the next general election outcome will be a hung parliament with Starmer becoming PM.