A LAB majority back as general election favourite
We have been focused so much recently on the American elections that we have ignored the betting on what is going to happen at the next UK General Election. The chart above shows how the outcome has fluctuated between a hung Parliament or a LAB majority and the latter has now just edged into the lead as a 43% chance.
In spite of all the current polling I am still sceptical about Labour’s chances of making the 124 gains that will be required in order to get itself a majority. I know the Tories have been sliding recently as the party has switched from one to another but things surely will be stable by the time we get to the election?
Remember that in the early days of Liz Truss as leader the Tories had quite a number of polls when the deficit was in single figures and at one stage it was down as being just 4% behind.
The big killer for the party remains the September budget though things in that respect look much calmer under the current Chancellor, Hunt.
We no longer have a fixed-term Parliament Act and the decision on the date of the election will entirely be in the hands of the prime minister.