The generic polling has GOP 1.1 % ahead

All the signs are that tomorrow’s midterm elections in the US are going to see record turnouts for these elections when all the House seats will be fought over as well as 35 Senate ones. There are also hundreds of other contests including a large number of State Governors.

The big polling picture comes from the generic voting question but individual battles are showing a lot of variances. Generally speaking at the MidTerms the party that does not control the White House does well and tomorrow looks like following this trend,

While the Democrats look like they’ll lose control of the House the Senate appears to be a bit different because the seats up were those last fought over in 2016. The latest polling, though, suggests the “Red Wave”, as now call these things, will impact the upper house as well.

Trump is already suggesting that the outcome will be his trigger for launching a WH2024 bid.

One thing is for sure is that it will take some time, maybe days or even weeks, before we know the outcome.

One key battleground where things are very tight is Georgia which has a rule that a winner has to take 50% of the vote. That could lead to a runoffs for the Senate and State Governorship just before Christmas.

What is likely is that we are going to see a lot of challenges by losing Republicans as part of their effort to focus on what they say was the “stolen election” of 2020 – AKAS 2the big lie”.

Mike Smithson