With four days to go the Republicans edge back into the lead
We are just 4 days off the November 8th Midterm elections in the United States when the Democrats will be defending their majority in the House of Representatives and hoping to maintain the edge in the Senate. There are also hundreds of state and local contests taking place.
The generic ballot polling question which sums up the broad changing mood in America is featured in the chart above and as can be seen in recent days there has been a movement back to the Republicans
My guess is that the party is on course to win back control of the House but the battle for the Senate is much tighter. This is because just 35 of the 100 seats are up for election next Tuesday and the Democrats are possibly doing better in those States than in the rest of the country.
These Senate seats were last up in 2016 when Hillary Clinton was fighting against Donald Trump for the presidency. It will be recalled that she and her party did not do well which might just give a touch of wiggle room for Joe Biden’s party. Punters don’t agree. On Betfair a GOP Senate majority is a 69% chance. I’ve had a small bet the other way at reasonable odds.