Given how the “Red Wall” and Labour’s collapse there came to dominate GE2019 analysis the regular regular tracker of opinion in the seats from Redfield & Wilton is very useful but terrifying for all the new CON MPs who entered Parliament from the seats there after making gains from LAB at the last election.

A 40% deficit for Truss’s Tories in this poll sends a worrying message to almost all CON MPs who can rightly claim that they are not responsible for Truss being leader.

The decision by William Hague’s Tories 20 or so years ago to give party members a leadership vote looks questionable in the current context.

The real killer was the “budget” and the almost universal negative response to it has been shocking and has caused polling records to be broken all over the place.

But the controversial PM is still there and I have cashed in my bets on the year of her departure. Best to take a profit now.

At noon we have PMQs and I wonder that line Starmer is going to take,

Mike Smithson