If the betting markets have got this right then Liz Truss is not likely to be fighting the next general election as Conservative leader and PM.

The betting above shows that punters think she has just over a 10% chance of going this year with a near 59% chance of leaving in 2023

Clearly she has a lot to learn and once again today at PMQs she really struggled. She needs to prepare for this set piece even much better and build up a team whose job it is to get her through the Wednesday morning event. Quite simply she is not very good at answering questions which is quite a skilled art.

That she appears to have so little confidence when in public is clearly filtering through to punters and to voters.

If she doesn’t improve than expect the rumblings amongst Tory MPs to grow and we could soon be talking of an attempt to replace her.

What she needs is a success which will give her a boost. Quite where that comes from I don’t know.

Mike Smithson