These are the market rules:

This market relates to the Prime Minister of the first new government formed after the next UK general election. The first person who accepts an invitation from the monarch to form a government after the election will be considered the winner. This will apply even if they immediately lose a vote of confidence in the House of Commons. The incumbent PM will be settled as the winner if they successfully form a new government (which may not require the specific invitation above). If no new PM is appointed before a further general election, this market will be void. Other contracts may be added

In just over a week’s time we’ll get the result of the Tory leadership election and the strong signs are that the prize has gone to the Foreign Secretary, Liz Truss, who appears to be winning the CON members’ ballot by a big margin.

Her next challenge will be to ensure that her party is still in power after the general election. Unlike recent previous PMs she will it have within her power to decide on the date of the next election which should mean that she’ll be able to hold it at a time that appears best for her party. But she will have a huge task ahead of her.

All the signs are that things are going to be pretty grim in the intervening period because of the fuel crisis and the impact of rising prices. But she will have the initial benefit of not being Boris. Her challenge is that unless the Tories can win a majority the chances are that Starmer will be the one who is called to the Palace.

I think that at current odds the LAB leader is a good bet.

Mike Smithson