An internal Labour analysis being reported by the Guardian is suggesting what I have been predicting, and betting on for several weeks, Truss will get a significant new PM bounce in the polls. The report by Pippa Crerar notes:

A memo drawn up by Keir Starmer’s director of strategy, Deborah Mattinson, claimed the foreign secretary could dramatically improve Conservative fortunes. The document, dated 18 August and leaked to the Guardian, comes amid speculation that Truss could be tempted to capitalise on the upswing and call a snap general election.However, the research also suggests that any improvement in the government’s position could be very short-lived, with voters already concerned about aspects of Truss’s character.

A big reason for this is that just about every new PM coming in between elections gets such a boost. A lot of this is driven by the way the media, particularly the broadcasters will treat her arrival. As we have seen before the narrative will move for a short period from a political one to a personality one. There will be profiles of her and her family and most of the reports will be in a positive light. It will seem churlish to go negative at such a time.

Many of the GE019 CON voters currently saying don’t know will move back and I fully expect the Tories to take a poll lead,

The big question is how long will it last.

Mike Smithson