Truss now favourite to be PM after next election
Can she really lead the Tories to another majority?
On this I think that punters have got this wrong because the challenge facing the Tories at the next election is so great that it is hard to see how they can stay in power unless they secure an overall majority.
Apart from the DUP there is no other significant grouping in UK politics to which the Tories are going to be able to link in the event that they don’t reach the target total.
Starmer’s path way to number 10 is much easier simply because he will be able to form linkages of some form that would allow him to become Prime Minister even if LAB has fewer votes and fewer MPs than the Tories.
Remember that at the 2019 General Election the Tory overall vote lead over LAB was 12%. That is a far cry from where they are at the moment.
Sure I think that the initial response to the election of Truss will be the Tories getting a poll lead and that is what I have been betting on. But how long that will survive it’s hard to say. And how is Truss going to go down in the LDs “Blue Wall”.
Remember there have been a lot of things that have been said in this leadership campaign that will provide useful ammunition for opposition parties at election time.