With the Telegraph reporting that three CON MPs are in active discussion about crossing the floor to join LAB the above bet from Smarkets looks might be value. According to the paper:

Labour sources told The Telegraph that the three male Conservatives, first elected in 2019, have entered formal discussions about crossing the floor to join Sir Keir Starmer’s party. Those familiar with discussions said the MPs had slim majorities in Red Wall areas in the North that have historically voted Labour and believed they would lose their seats at the next election if they did not defect. It is understood the three have felt dissatisfied with Boris Johnson’s leadership in recent weeks and were pushed towards the decision after a confidence vote in which 148 Tory MPs did not back the Prime Minister.

The market rules are “This market relates to whether any Conservative MP will defect to the Labour party before 1 August 2022. Only MPs who are currently taking the Conservative whip will count.”

It is true to say that there is a long history of possible defection reports like this and very few actually amount to it happening.

A big problem for the possible receiving party is what to do if the potential defector wants a guarantee that he will be able to contest the seat at the next general election. This can be hard for the leadership to square with local parties – after all they would have fought hard against him at the previous general election.

There is a possibility that this is a story that has been planted simply to add to the problems on the government side.

As a general rule you only hear about a real cross the floor after it has taken place.

Mike Smithson