But at 79% the LDs are still very strong favourites

There’s been bit of a move upwards for the Tories in the Tiverton and Honiton by-election betting. The election takes place a week on Thursday and already many postal voters are reported to have cast their ballots.

The latest on Betfair has the Tories now a 20% chance with the LDs on 79%.

Certainly, Davey’s party are throwing a lot at this seat and their leaflet above sets out their broad themes. Like earlier by-elections where they believe they are in with a shout the party is getting a lot of support every day on the ground from activists who have traveled long distances to be there. It helps that the area has some excellent beaches and other tourist attractions.

The Tories are putting more into this defence than at the previous by-elections which have gone to the LDs – the question is whether they can stem with the orange tide?

I have not bet on this market because although I think the LDs are in with a good shout the betting odds are just too tight.

Mike Smithson