Johnson now just a 27% betting chance of going this year
After a week in which Johnson easily survived the attempt by some Conservative MP’s to oust him inevitably the PM exit year betting market has moved sharply.
As can be seen, him going in 2024 or later is now favourite with an exit this year down to just 27%.
Clearly what is being priced in are Tory losses in the June 23rd by-elections. In the Wakefield market punters now give LAB a 98% chance of winning while in Tiverton and Honiton the LDs are rated as an 86% chance.
What could just impact on the Johnson exit market is if the results are significantly worse for the Tories than is being predicted. The size of the swings against the Tories will be what gets all the analysis. It is important to remind ourselves that at the general election in December 2019 the overall GB vote totals had the Tories 12% ahead of LAB
Also the outside chance of a CON hold in Tiverton and Honiton would give Johnson a huge boost.