The big worry for LAB and the LDs is Johnson going
Sunak is no longer the great hope
The Redfield and Wilton Strategies chart tells the story of the last two and a bit years in UK politics from the perspective of the Johnson and Starmer net approval ratings. The latest poll out today has the LAB leader just in negative territory but a net 22% ahead of the PM.
The other player recorded here is Sunak who is doing better than his boss but still trails Starmer.
From the voting intention perspective, the Tories are fighting on two fronts – the classic LAB-CON marginals and a growing group of Tory-held seats that voted Remain and have a highish proportion of graduates in their electorates. Unless there’s a huge change there could be substantial gains for Davey’s party here.
The big thing that could change all of this is for Johnson to go. Whoever his successor is will surely do substantially better and you can envisage CON poll leads.
My calculation is that to retain a Commons majority the Tories will need at least a 4% national vote lead – so we are a long way from that at the moment.